As the great Thomas Schelling wrote in the introduction to the great Roberta Wohlstetter’s book Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, the ultimate failure was lack of imagination. Simply no one imagined that Japan or anyone could do what Japan proceeded to do. Hence the U.S. was utterly unprepared.
Keep in mind we had conducted training exercises where our carriers attacked Pearl Harbor several times in the 30s. We knew it could happen.
I agree with your comment.
I would only follow up with a question of “Why not?”
If your plan is to “push” the US back to the West Coast how else would you do it? Where else would you attack?
Pearl Harbor checked off all of the boxes: Fleet HQ, Berthing of ALL of the fleet. Supplies and logistics.
If you are looking to hamstring the US NAVY, wouldn’t you go after their ONLY large base between the Philippines and the West Coast?
You would think that at least one or two Intelligence folks would be assigned to defending against that option—crazy as it seems.
That question ALWAYS bugged me.