It looks okay for Trump, that is the best I can say. The pollster from the Trafalgar group said he sees a Trump win with between 275 and 280 EV. That seems reasonable.
One thing about this analysis. I can only speak for NC. During the General Election you are not asked party preference as there is only one ballot. To tally early voting numbers they are going off a person’s registration. I am a registered Independent. I left the GOP years ago. A lot of conservatives in my area are registered as Independent so unless they are using my past voting pattern, unlikely, my early vote for Trump is not reflected in the numbers for NC. Not all Trump voters are registered as Republicans.
“Not all Trump voters are registered as Republicans.”
Exactly! And, the percentage of independents who are highly motivated to vote for Trump vs Biden are vastly greater than 50%.