Posted on 10/13/2020 11:03:47 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Last month, I posed this question: “If President Trump wins, what should we have paid attention to that would have allowed us to see it coming?” The article noted his improving job approval rating, his ratings on the stewardship of the economy, and potential problems with Joe Biden’s base as signs that he might perform well in the upcoming election.
But even a few weeks can be an eternity in politics, especially in the Donald Trump era. Since that essay was published, we’ve seen a Supreme Court justice die, Trump name a replacement, the leaking of the president’s taxes, the first debate, and the White House COVID outbreak. Also since then, polls have ranged from mixed (USA Today/Suffolk showing Trump tied with Biden in Florida) to very bad for the incumbent (CNN showing him down 16 nationally).
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Key to victory- ignore the ridiculous RealClearPolitics polls!
Guys, I find this article really fascinating. In particular the Washington State primary results forecasting the general election.
So Trende has detected a pattern in how the Washington state primary results predicts November. Think of the primary as a “dry run” for November. The primary is a “jungle” format like California. Rep/Dems are both on the ballot at the same time.
Trende adds up R/D votes. Guess what the 2020 primary best resembles? 2016 (R year) or 2018 (D year)?
You guessed it correctly! 2016.
Thanks for the find.
Very nice! I think that was mentioned yesterday in Richard Baris’s show. It’s been recommended to us a few times on these threads but it really does live to the hype. It is like a show made for “us” - full of interesting stats.
Imagine an addled Biden having to deal with all of the stuff Trump has had to deal with just this year. Even if you eliminate all of the crap associated with the impeachment and Russia collusion, Trump has gotten a lot done with a lot on his plate.
If Trump wins, the left will become so unhinged, we may have open civil war and state revolts, some which may have to be put down with troops. Especially after Trump frog-marches Haspel, Wray, Millen and others. It will get ugly fast.
I find this question laughable!!
“If President Trump wins, what should we have paid attention to that would have allowed us to see it coming?”
Seriously, in all of the uber leftist states they allowed rioting, burning, looting, harassment of honest hard working citizens, and murder....The author must have been living under a rock all damn summer.
For crying out loud....People hate that $hit and want to get back to normal.
President Trump is promising normal, what is biden offering, mask mandates and more shut downs, F that!!!
RCP average of Polls had Clinton ahead with a 7.1 percentage lead on 10/18/2016.
The RCP Average of Polls is cobbled together from a wide variety of polls, including some absolute outlier polls. From 7/31/16 all thru the election Trump NEVER lead the NATIONAL POLL.
Winning the TOTAL National Vote count would be a bonus, however, this election comes down to several swing States. All Trump has to do is win 270 Electoral Votes. That number comes down to just a few States.
Yep, Trump has achieved alot with a hostile (unloyal) opposition party, hostile judiciary (but getting better) and hostile media (and getting worse).
All he has to do is hold the purple states.
Somebody should compile a list of predictors:
1. That professor and his “keys” to victory.
2. That other professor and his economic model.
3. This guy’s Washington Top 2 primary model.
4. This guy’s special election model.
5. Gallup’s R U better than 4 years ago question.
6. Gallup’s Pres. approval number.
7. Registrations.
9. Early voting.
11. 7-Election straw vote.
12. The Washington Redskins final home game.
Red Wing Bakery’s Presidential Cookie Poll: https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/09/03/ive-never-seen-it-like-this-trump-well-ahead-of-biden-in-red-wing-bakerys-presidential-cookie-poll/
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