Posted on 10/04/2020 12:17:12 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Interesting article breaking down the surprising finding on Gallup’s latest pol that 56% of those polled think Trump will win and just 40% think Biden will win. The article compares these findings with previous election years. Quite interesting.
Also, Gallup now has Trump approval rating up to 46%...highest since May.
honestly I think the “who do you think will win” is meaningful
it seems that the expectation that a candidate will win - in the aggregate - drives turn out for that candidate and depresses it for the other
only slightly of course
but in a close electorate that matters
all that said....obviously...no one really knows :(
it’s all just speculation
The good ones, duh. :-)
Good question. I don't think that any national level polls can be trusted, ignore them all. State and local polls can be reliable, but it's very difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. Be careful. Any poll with results reported by the news media are likely to be wrong since the media will only report those polls that match their preferences.
Have the poll results of cemetery addressed mail in votes come in yet. This may be the first ever election decided by the Black, nursing home and already dead voters.
Last week he was at FIFTY THREE percent approval on Rasmussen.
Then it went to 46 after the SC nomination.
I think it will go back up this week.
I KNOW Trump will win.
I just don’t get why a SC pick would hit him so hard.
But those emotions are short lived and I think he will be high 40s tomorrow on Rasmussen
Last week he was at FIFTY THREE percent approval on Rasmussen.
Then it went to 46 after the SC nomination.
I think it will go back up this week.
I KNOW Trump will win.
I just don’t get why a SC pick would hit him so hard.
But those emotions are short lived and I think he will be high 40s tomorrow on Rasmussen
Yeah, the first time I listened to Joe say he would've done better, he listed all the things he would have done. All of the things he listed, ALL of them, were things that POTUS had already done. So, I ignore this subject from Joe, he's got nothing.
Actually most pundits tie the fact that there is a significant difference between who people polled say they are going to vote for and who they say they think will win to the reluctance of a significant number of voters to disclose they are voting for Trump because the media/pollsters have made it unacceptable.
The other poll question that pollster sometimes use to get people to disclose the truth is “Who do you think your neighbors are going to vote for?” Apparently people are more willing to out their neighbors than themselves....:-) Trump wins on polls that have asked that question, too.
The other thing in the past that has led voters to say they think the candidate they are not supporting is going to win is that the majority of the polls have indicated that. Well, we certainly know that is not the case in this election....:-)
They are factoring in the margin of cheat.
POLLS ARE NOT NEWS!!!!
A poll wrong? Why I've never heard of such a thing.
/
Wee Too Lowe
Probably some independents didnt like the whole process of the Supreme Court pick in 2016 and today. They will come around.
Never!
And I was born a long time ago....
Probably a majority of the populace has been brought up or "educated" to think that certain choices have, or should have, no consequences.
The nomination of someone like Judge Barrett who walks the walk puts the lie to The Lie that the majority has been taught.
If those who are "hurt" don't get over it soon, they will eventually, hopefully before they pass.
p
I still don’t believe one of these polls.......not this, not RCP, not Rassmussen........NONE!!!! The poll that counts is the POLL you go to on November 3rd and re-elect the President and give him the House and Senate!!!
“I just dont get why a SC pick would hit him so hard.”
__________________________________
You have the understand that “the low information voter” is the norm, not the exception. If the media goes into a hysterical melt down about something, subsequent immediate polls will show the damage.
But, news is now in a 24 hour cycle, so the damage is usually short lived.... And, of course, replaced with whatever the new hyperbolic narrative is...:-)
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