“... people were previously infected but never showed symptoms. But now they are coming out and getting tested”
There are two types of tests:
1. Are you infected NOW (RT-PCR test)?
2. Were you infected in the past BUT NOT NOW (a serology or antibody test)? Serology / antibody tests don’t work until one to three after the infection.
I believe that almost all of the testing being done is to see if you are sick now, not if you had the disease in the past. So, if somebody who was sick a month ago and recovered comes out today to get tested, they will get the RT-PCR test which will show negative for infection today.
FR Docs — did I get that right?
Generally correct. PCR tests look for virus present now. Serology tests look for antibodies formed to fight the virus (takes weeks) and they linger after the virus is gone.
The bad news in all of this is the most recent reports suggest the antibodies only linger 8 weeks. There is more to immunity than antibodies, but that’s what we have to work with. If you had the disease and recovered, your recovery may make you immune only 8 weeks. Then you could re-infect.
Your understanding of RT-PCR vs. detection of IgM and IgG antibodies is incomplete.
You are attempting to dichotomize a mixed-interval condition. A positive RT-PCR test does NOT conclude the test subject just recently contracted the virus. It merely attempts to match unique viral subsequences and amplify any fractions so that it can be detected.
The only relevant dichotomy for study is the BEFORE and AFTER “state opening” conditions.
For emphasis, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction focuses on detecting the SARS-COV-2 virus but it does not rule out the presence of IgM and IgG antibodies and vice versa.
People with IgM and IgG antibodies may still and most often do retain the SARS-COV-2 in their bodies. Conversely, those testing positive for SARS-COV-2 may have IgM and IgG antibodies.
The entire epidemic process is driven predominately by the interplay between the viral infection and its immune response. Immune response is more variable and determines the degrees and stages of SARS-COV-2 infection progressing (or not progressing) to the disease state which is COVID-19.
Many confuse, as does the media, the virus (SARS-COV-2) with the disease (COVID-19). They are not the same, they are separate conditions with intersection concerning causality. One is a lifeless broken strand of nucleic acids, the other is the effect on an organism’s biological function. It is the immune response which governs the outcome. One person can have twice as much virus as another person and be asymptomatic because their immune system is stronger against the virus. The quantity of virus is not as important as its immune response.
There are many infected with SARS-COV-2 who do not have and will not have COVID-19, in fact a super majority exists of such people. Their immune systems determine this.
The rapid test for SARS-COV-2 antibodies IgM and IgG takes about an hour.
https://www.fda.gov/media/137367/download
The RT-PCR process takes a day or more but reportedly getting faster, hopefully.
The testing policy is driven by first detecting the virus which seems logical. The antibody testing policy is left twisting in the wind, for now. The entire analysis approach is flawed and is driven by government officials shooting first and asking questions later, which by the way is, among the realm of data scientists, an appropriate first thing. What should follow is the scientific Q & A, which is outrageously impeded/muffled because of a rabid progressive insurgency that reacts to exaggerate and twist any findings to its goal of keeping people quarantined to justify mail-in voting so they can cheat their way to power.
The idea that the process of opening states is driving the SPREAD of NEW infections is ludicrous. It has been shown dozens of times that a stay-at-home quarantine policy will most certainly cause the infection to spread to all members of a residence once one member becomes infected.
But even in a state of quarantine, people have a need to get out of their residence for necessary things “essentials” and with precautions (often conflicting, confusing, changing), the spread of the virus will appear to have declined but is merely masked. Such people traveling outside their residence will eventually return to their residence and if for whatever reason they have been infected while outside, they will certainly infect those inside their residence. But statistics won’t show these at-home infections
But once there is a general opening, a phased lifting of quarantine, infected but asymptomatic people formerly shuttered in their residence, will get outside, get tested, and a ‘surge’ in positive cases will be reported.
People are at risk of hundreds of things whenever they venture outside their residences. I know MDs and scientists who have been afraid for years to touch door handles.
A policy that would quarantine people until the cows come home is disastrous. Most of those venturing out and getting tested, coming back with negative results, tested again just to be sure, and so on, will be susceptible each time to picking up the virus but they can choose to be cautious. Staying in quarantine while other members of the residence go outside will add increased risk because inside the residence, precautions are practically impossible.
Fortunately, we have an effective prophylactic for the spread of SARS-COV-2 and a cure for its early progression to COVID-19. But said cure and prophylactic are trounced with irrational ferocious intensity and outright evil lies by the rabid progressive insurgency mentioned above. I ping SeekAndfind to address this latter statement if up for it.