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To: mrsmith

I don’t think it’s a high risk area. Maybe moderate at worst. I’m in a small town near Nashville. Our county scored F on the social distancing scorecard. But really, we were already socially distant.

And I go to stores early in the morning, once a week, and wear a mask and glasses. So I think my risk is low.

Tennessee doesn’t have good daily graphs up that I can find. There is one on Wikipedia but it doesn’t have 7 day moving average. I think we are flat, maybe edging up a little bit.

We had about 460 new cases in the state yesterday. I’m guessing 200 of those are Nashville. But those are known new cases for one day. If there are 3 times (total guess) as many unknown cases as known, that would make a total of 800 new cases. And if people have it on average 5 days before they see a doctor or stay home, that’s 4000 people walking around with it.

Nashville has 650,000 so 650/4 = 162. 1 in 162 people may have it. So if I run to Walmart and the grocery store once a week and encounter 30 people in the process. That’s about 18% chance a week of even encountering someone. And between early morning trips, distancing and wearing a mask, I figure that’s down to 3% chance of catching it a week. But I think it’s lower than that.


100 posted on 05/25/2020 8:22:56 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: DannyTN

Well, maybe. Definitely would be masked in Nashville., probably not in the boonies. But you know best.
I’m just North of Kingsport, so keeping an eye on Tennessee.


101 posted on 05/25/2020 8:34:06 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts (M / F) : Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
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