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To: sonrise57

1. the accuracy of your specific antibody test is paramount. if it was finger prick it’s likely not very accurate.

see the new test roche has just released on their cobas machine. it’s specificity is claimed to be 99.8% and sensitivity at 100%. those are the kind of numbers you need to be confident in any test. looks good, well see how well the verification goes. but, find a lab that has that test or one with like accuracy.

2. you could have not had time to build up antibodies after exposure. roche says the test should be done 14 days post pcr confirmation test to see the antibodies.

3. get a pcr from a reference lab if you can to see if you are currently infected.

4. i believe covid19 is far less infective than claimed by the the experts. my estimated R0 came up with around 1.1- 1.2. my **opinion** is based on calcs i did based on the infection rates early on in military and cruise ships. so unless you were surrounded by 10-12 infected people, touching everything they touched, chances are you weren’t positive because you weren’t infected.

5. if you’re young and strong with no immuno-comp, you may have been exposed but your body just destroyed the infection. the virus is fragile and easily killed by your bodies own mechanisms and even sunlight destroys it quickly.

6. all these typhoid mary, dying at home, airisol-ization, projectile olympic event sneezing, surface survival for days, etc, stories are just myths, imo. the fear factor is being promoted, but the death counts are imo way over counted, especially in places like urban italy and nyc.

7. lastly maybe you got an inaccurate test and you are positive. so get a confirmatory test. hopefully an accurate one.

oh well, hope that helps you. i wouldn’t waste my time asking for trouble. i personally know no one who’s got it, either. i was actually sick with something in jan, but who knows.


31 posted on 05/04/2020 11:41:22 AM PDT by dadfly
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To: dadfly

Thanks— very helpful. What is your background that you know the science behind the infection rates, etc? Being a humanities person, I am always impressed with Math wizards.


36 posted on 05/04/2020 11:48:16 AM PDT by sonrise57 (God have mercy on us, protect our President and grace him with humility, wisdom and reciliance.)
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To: dadfly

Hypothetically, if a person started having symptoms 8 weeks ago and recovered over a 2 week period, would anti bodies show up if they take this blood test?


48 posted on 05/04/2020 12:05:10 PM PDT by CaptainK ('No collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker')
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