April 5 COV-19 deaths BELOW "best" projection?

IHME COVID-19 Projections ^ | April 2020 | IHME

[SaxxonWoods]

“Has anybody given the reason why hospital discharges are going up and net positive?”

Are those all discharges or only C19 patients?

[norcal joe]

Don’t you need to wait until the 6th to get the full count of deaths on the 5th? You have 2-8 more hours of dying, plus time collate the reports.

I believe the dates which they are reporting for (on Worldometers) correspond to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT), and not local time or day. So they are for a 24 hour period ending at midnight GMT for that date. This is so they can update the world tables and figures all at once, and not have to start new columns for each and very time zone.

[hawkaw]

I don’t know.

[laplata]

“These models are worse than climate change hysteria”.

That is an excellent point.

[mathprof]

They finally updated the model. Now shows many less total deaths in US.

[calenel]

Sundays tend to have a dip in the reported numbers that the models don’t reflect. Then there tends to be a surge the next day, also not reflected by the models.

So if tomorrow isn’t too high we may be seeing some positive results of all the mitigation. If it is very high, some of that will be from Sunday’s unreported numbers.

If you shave off the over-projected surplus amount from tomorrow and it doesn’t fill the under-projected deficit amount from today, that’s good news.

[Persevero]

In re the flu tis and pancreatic cancer question, you ignore the fact if the increase of deaths of despair due to suicide and drug and alcohol abuse and domestic abuse and depression and anxiety and paranoia.

So like have it so that 1 out of 100 in the room dies if you DON’T take the walk. That’s been my argument all along. People are truly dying from the “cure.” And at least some of the covid deaths would have died from the next opportunistic infection, normally.

[Think free or die]

I’ll be very curious what’s in the models tomorrow. I’ve been watching the healthdata.org site. The peak for Pennsylvania has shifted from April 18 to April 11th, and estimated deaths dropped from around 2,000 to around 800. Colorado has gone from having too few beds to being 2 days past its peak. I hope these improved outlooks aren’t just a weird blip.

[TECTopcat]

hope so but I’ve noticed sometimes the Sunday numbers across the board are lower-as if they didn’t enter them all sort of like mail before a holiday-people taking off-what is clear news is Italy has been declining all week

[tinyowl]

Agreed but at the current rate of death per day, increasing exponentially, and remember that when these decisions were made it was not yet pretty clear that everyone was going to peak, there was no way to know that the hospitals wouldn't get crushed.

In other words, it's easy to say NOW that we're going to peak in a little over a week and deaths may not even get close to 100k -> maybe even they are close to 50K ... 3 weeks ago there was no way to know that as well as we know it now.

So I agree that NOW it's time to put the pedal to the metal and get the hell back to work -> because what you're talking about and the general damage, compared to the likely path of the Corona through the population IS a cure that's worse than the problem.

I think Trump knows that ... but 3 weeks ago, that wasn't so clear. 3 weeks ago we had a 'rational range' and the upper end of that rational range was bad enough to cover it by taking extreme action. Now -> not so much, now that's played out and it looks like the lowest end of what the range was 3 weeks ago.

[JCL3]

“If we are peaking now, Trump will walk into the next press conference with Fauci’s head on stick.”
___________________________________________________________

I’d like to see him read FauxChi’s “love you” emails to his girlfriend, Trump’s opponent in the last election to the public. Then turn to FauxChi and tell him “You’re Fired!”

[Robert357]

the same basic model is used to make projections for each state and total them. The model uses sets of parameters that are updated. First models used Chinese data, then as more data was available US data.

If you look at each state model results you will see an confidence range. That is a statistical view of a certain probability.

I have a real problem with this model and the Imperial College model as they all assume logarithmic growth. The USA, the world and even a state are not a single Petri dish where bacteria grown.

When the elderly at a nursing home are all infected or killed you don't keep tossing in new victims to the virus.

This pandemic has hit the frail and elderly the hardest. When the lessons learned are provided, I will wager this will be mostly a disease of the nursing homes and places were the elderly congregate.

[Cronos]

Yup. Everyone back to work. Open the bars, pubs, malls, shops etc.

[laplata]

“Yup. Everyone back to work. Open the bars, pubs, malls, shops etc.”

You forgot packing ‘em into sports arenas.