I seriously do not see anything encouraging about the numbers at all.
There were 69,158 new cases and 3,292 deaths in the last 25 hours. Contrast this with one week ago when there were 23,633 new cases and 923 deaths in a 24 hour period.
I graph the daily total cases, deaths, and recoveries every day. The rate of increase of new cases is in an exponential growth phase currently.
The projections that Blackmon is referring to are the worst case scenarios—the projections *if nothing is done*. The efficacy of control measures is shown by how far short of projections the actual numbers fall. The fact that the real numbers are falling short of projections is NOT a sign that the virus is not very serious or that we are victims of some great fear mongering conspiracy. It is a sign that public health measures work.
The bottom line is that we cannot afford to become complacent just because the number of cases is lower than worst case scenarios. The worst case scenario is still a very grave threat until we get this thing under control.
Typically, an outbreak is considered ended when 2 full incubation periods have passed without new cases. We are nowhere near that point yet.
I seriously do not see anything encouraging about the numbers at all.
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Nor do I. See my Post #16 above. People should look at the data and draw their own conclusions about what that data is telling us.