Posted on 03/26/2020 2:55:12 PM PDT by Impala64ssa
Neil Ferguson works at UK-based Imperial College under “J-IDEA” sponsored by https://www.alj.com/en/about/story/ which may have its own agenda. The “J” stands for Abdul Latif Jameel.
Ferguson is the Director of J-IDEA. ://www.alj.com/en/news/rapid-response-research-centre-to-predict-and-prevent-global-health-crises/
YMMV
Just remember this entire. Thing this virus crap. M
Strange as it is - it’s only been going on about 10 or 11 days
and is only going to continue for a few more
and then the history books are going to start getting written about it
and the entire dynamic of this presidential race has changed
and the ability for liberal idiots in this country to see that this president is a great leader is cemented
Still waiting for MSM to report this.
Waiting, waiting, waiting.....
It is.
Most of these predictions are made by a SEIR epidemiology model. It's a differential equation that has many about 4 or 5 parameters that are difficult to measure. Because it's exponential small overestimates in the basic parameters can have huge consequences.
The worst offender is the COVID Act Now site which displays dire graphs but provides no information as to how they were obtained. Rumor has it they used information from the guy at Imperial College.
One good site is the University of Pennsylvania CHIME model. It's purpose is to try to help hospitals plan their predicted census and ICU census based on the doubling rate of cases they are seeing in real time.
You can play with it yourself. The problem with the model though is that it is using a fixed R0 of 2.6(referred to as R-naught which is loosely considered the birth number of new infections). While that is considered the current value for this virus it is still an estimate. No one really knows what the value of the number really is.
The model as presented at the site does not allow you to change the value of R0. So if you play with it, you will find that the exponential underpinnings of the model and its use of a fixed value of R0 mean that the hospital census quickly gets high. This inspite of changing the other parameters to try to effect a reduction.
Thanks!
Stig, I got what you said. I worked on the Club of Rome programs when I was in college as a class project, and they had a similar problem
Which is why I have never trusted computer models.
Later
But it did help us see how many on FR would rather live in slavery than risk their lives for FReedom - seems like some of them might have been out there in the '50s and '60s chanting "Better Red than Dead" as we massed resources during the Cold War...
“Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.” ― William Pitt the Younger
“Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” Ben Franklin
This virus may not be as bad as Ferguson says we it would be thoroughly moronic not to take it seriously. It is deadly enough to change your habits and take precautions to prevent infection.
South Korea didn’t lock everyone down, and they’re doing fine. Hand-washing, smart testing, and commonsense isolation of the vulnerable. Nothing new.
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