Still relatively quiet
Iran
Govt security forces reportedly shooting at protestors at sites across Iran. To date it is estimated over 1,500 protestors have been killed by security forces. Internet shutdowns across the country have inhibited getting details out.
PR spin on the shooting down of Ukranian airliner continues to go bad as Ukraine presses harder for investigation and accountability/justice.
Iran/Iraq
The IRGC-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) announced that it is giving the Iraqi authorities a chance to ‘diplomatically’ expel the American troops from Iraq before it launches a massive military campaign to forcefully expel them from the country.
USA CW2
All eyes on Virginia and its attempts to limit gun rights. First thing out of the blocks was to prohibit all firearms in the area around the capitol. This is a preemptive strike against the planned Jan 2- protest for gun rights. Many commentators noting that there is the potential for a false flag event that could be used to paint the Pro 2A advocates in a dark manner and use against the 2A sanctuary county/city movement. Paying attention for any antifa et al response/plans to disrupt event. Goal is 50,000+ pro 2A attendance.
Iran -
The govt has ‘arrested’ those involved in the shooting down of the airliner. This appears to be a sop thrown out to quench the protests which are going into another day. Little details because Iran has also killed the internet in areas of unrest.
This action appears to be confirming some rumblings I’ve read that there is a schism between the IRGC and the mullahs. These rumors last week suggested that Iran was implicit in tipping off the general’s movements hoping for a kill strike. This was because the mullahs were concerned that an increasing power hungry IRGC was threatening their authority and leadership. IT is being reported today that the IRGC is angry because the govt (Rouhani) claims that it was “misled” by the military.
If there is a schism between these two elements, it would indicate that internal conditions and rule are crumbling. The recent antigovt protest, reflamed by the shoot down, are approaching the largest since the overthrow of the shah. In the protestors cross hair are the mullahs, so naturally they want to deflect the anger to the military to save their hides.
This downward spiral may lead to several possible outcomes.
1. Iran launches a war against US or Israel in an attempt to rally support. Not good because they don’t have the economic legs for a protracted conflict
2. Military overthrow of the mullahs (or select mullahs). this would almost certainly lead to a more open civil war.
To throw more gas on the fire, France, UK and Germany have put forth a joint statement saying Iran is in violation of the JCPOA deal and are demanding activation of the dispute mechanism. These countries haven’t pulled out of the deal. Just more pressure on an already troubled and cornered regime.