Posted on 01/02/2020 5:19:04 PM PST by Godzilla
Thanks for your work and all of the great posters on TM. BUMP!
Iran -
When I posted this morning that the admission of shooting down the Ukraine airliner were causing internal repercussions, I did not anticipated such rapid increase in protests. College students in multiple towns besides Tehran are in the streets calling for the resignation of Khamenei. Rumors that the Iranian govt is telling family to keep quiet or not receive the remains of dead. Even if rumors - this will cause protests to increase. Watching for internet shutdowns to cover govt crack downs. The riots, shoot down along with the revenge missile attack debacle seem to have Iran beginning to implode.
The British ambassador was arrested (detained) for several hours for some infraction associated to the protests - incitement, photographing, or something. This is a grave violation Of the Vienna Convention,
Ukraine officials now calling for justice for the shoot down. Tehran currently trying to blame the pilot for getting shot down.
Iraq -
A commander of Abbas Ali Al-Sa’edi which is a Pro-Iran PMU militia has been assassinatedi in Karbala, Iraq alone with two other officers.
Oman -
Haitham bin Tariq Al Said has been named as the new Sultan of Oman. He is Qaboos bin Said’s cousin. He has vowed to continue the neutral foreign policy of the former sultan.
13 posted on 01/11/2020 2:54:01 PM PST by Paisan
See post 102...
Paisan ~ When the protests spread to other cities, towns and villages, THEN and only then, should the rulers start to sweat.
13 posted on 01/11/2020 2:54:01 PM PST by Paisan
Well
let’s hope that happens
Iran -
Protest follow up. Reports of counter protest against the British at their embassy by an IRGC affiliate group Basij . The Basij militia is an Iranian volunteer force of Islamic government loyalists which is often called out onto the streets at times of crisis to dispel dissent. They are demanding the ambassador be expelled and the embassy closed.
Lebanon -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah Gives speech demanding US leave ME and that there will be a concerted ‘resistance’ effort to remove us as well as eliminate Israel.
Still relatively quiet
Iran
Govt security forces reportedly shooting at protestors at sites across Iran. To date it is estimated over 1,500 protestors have been killed by security forces. Internet shutdowns across the country have inhibited getting details out.
PR spin on the shooting down of Ukranian airliner continues to go bad as Ukraine presses harder for investigation and accountability/justice.
Iran/Iraq
The IRGC-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) announced that it is giving the Iraqi authorities a chance to ‘diplomatically’ expel the American troops from Iraq before it launches a massive military campaign to forcefully expel them from the country.
USA CW2
All eyes on Virginia and its attempts to limit gun rights. First thing out of the blocks was to prohibit all firearms in the area around the capitol. This is a preemptive strike against the planned Jan 2- protest for gun rights. Many commentators noting that there is the potential for a false flag event that could be used to paint the Pro 2A advocates in a dark manner and use against the 2A sanctuary county/city movement. Paying attention for any antifa et al response/plans to disrupt event. Goal is 50,000+ pro 2A attendance.
Iran -
The govt has ‘arrested’ those involved in the shooting down of the airliner. This appears to be a sop thrown out to quench the protests which are going into another day. Little details because Iran has also killed the internet in areas of unrest.
This action appears to be confirming some rumblings I’ve read that there is a schism between the IRGC and the mullahs. These rumors last week suggested that Iran was implicit in tipping off the general’s movements hoping for a kill strike. This was because the mullahs were concerned that an increasing power hungry IRGC was threatening their authority and leadership. IT is being reported today that the IRGC is angry because the govt (Rouhani) claims that it was “misled” by the military.
If there is a schism between these two elements, it would indicate that internal conditions and rule are crumbling. The recent antigovt protest, reflamed by the shoot down, are approaching the largest since the overthrow of the shah. In the protestors cross hair are the mullahs, so naturally they want to deflect the anger to the military to save their hides.
This downward spiral may lead to several possible outcomes.
1. Iran launches a war against US or Israel in an attempt to rally support. Not good because they don’t have the economic legs for a protracted conflict
2. Military overthrow of the mullahs (or select mullahs). this would almost certainly lead to a more open civil war.
To throw more gas on the fire, France, UK and Germany have put forth a joint statement saying Iran is in violation of the JCPOA deal and are demanding activation of the dispute mechanism. These countries haven’t pulled out of the deal. Just more pressure on an already troubled and cornered regime.
What’s missing from all these recent Iran discussions - the regular armed forces. Where are their heads in all of this? I know after 40 years of mullah reign they are pretty emasculated. Early in the regime they were not fond of the IRGC and there were rumblings. The mullahs responded by shooting a lot of regular officers, pushing people out, etc & used the IRGC as the regime protection force. Are there still rumblings in the regular forces and its not being reported?
That is another log on the fire. They are overshadowed by IRGC but will get stuck with the dirty work if it hits the fan. Will try to listen close to see just what the regular forces are up to.
>>would be a hell of a mess with just atheists fighting, eh?
die for what?
Die for the lives of the others who share their foxhole. For the ideals of protecting those you love. To stop evil at the border and leave peace within our country. For love. Not for hate.
much appreciate the update guys.
Iraq -
Several Katusha rockets were fired at the Taj military base north of Bagdad. Reportedly two hit but only an Iraqi security guard was injured. this is most likely from the Iranian supported militas. Expect more of the same in the coming weeks.
Sudan -
Skirmish in Khartoum between Sudan Army and NISS occurred overnight.
Kinda a normal day of chaos
Iran -
Protests probably continuing except that internet shutdowns are inhibiting information getting out from other than govt authorized sources.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei is reported to be leading Friday prayers for the first time since 2012. His attendance at these prayers have been very spotty. Could mean that things are getting desperate for the religious rulers and are trying to sway the people back to them. Have to see just what the response is.
Great video snuck out from Iran showing TWO TOR-1 (SA-15) missiles being fired within 30 seconds, targeting the Ukraine air liner.
Major EU players - France, Germany and Britian - looking to impose more sanctions on Iran as noted yesterday. Iranian economy will degrade further. Its economy is reported to have contracted by about 9.6% last year.
Israel -
Late yesterday afternoon, IAF struck the Syrian T-4 airbase, targeting Iranian munitions and supplies. This is become a rather routine operation. Iran ships stuff in, Israel blows it up.
Sporadic activity along the Gaza border. Explosive balloons being launched and ab out a half dozen rockets launched into Israel. Heavy IAF over flights of Gaza. Again, this is almost routine.
Of more strategic note, there are some analysts that believe the Hezbollah/Israel war will occur some time this year. Factors to look at -
1. Iran is on the rocks financially and facing strong internal protests. They have been prepping Hezbollah to do this attack for a long time and may give the go signal to divert attention.
2. Hezbollah fighters have been getting real world combat training in Syria. On the flip side of that training, they have suffered high losses and to engage in a major conflict with Israel this year could potentially over extend their forces.
3. Hezbollah wants Israel to strike first - PR justification. Israel can hold off with no problem.
4. Israel has learned the lessons of the last conflict and I’m not sure Hezbollah is going to significantly change their tactics.
5. Israel has openly warned Lebanon that elements seen supporting any attack, such as power, fuel, water, etc will also be attacked. IIRC they have also said that if Hezbollah operates out of civilian facilities, those will be hit, unlike the last conflict.
6. Hezbollah leader Nasarallah is looking to enhance his standing in the shia community in the region at the expense of Iran.
Lebanon -
Protests are still continuing in the country as protestors voice anger over corruption of the government by Hezebollah.
Kinda a normal day of chaos
Iran -
Protests probably continuing except that internet shutdowns are inhibiting information getting out from other than govt authorized sources.
great update
thanx
Gaza -
IAF destroyed a Hamas-linked building in response to earlier rocket/balloon IED attacks.
CW2 -
Va. Gov. Northam declares STATE OF EMERGENCY. From Executive Order 49 he claims:
• Credible intelligence evaluated, pro gun groups plan to assemble MONDAY and “storm capitol”. Conducted by white extremist groups.
• “Weaponized drones” also a threat
Warns Virginians to stay away from the Capitol Monday.
Some have warned that the left will use the Jan 20 protest as cover to execute a false flag incident. The verbiage of the state of emergency has an air of propaganda in it.
Israel/Gaza
Israel stating that it holds Hamas responsible for any attacks against Israel by ANY and ALL terror groups in Gaza and will retaliate against Hamas. Israel reported to be moving some Iron Dome units to southern Israel in anticipation of more rocket attacks. Earlier, IAF leveled a Hamas facility in response to rocket and IED balloon attacks. Hamas and other terror factions reportedly in an emergency meeting to plan responses.
Iran -
Iran has threatened European forces in the Iraq/Syria theater with attacks for taking steps to impose restrictions/sanctions on Iran for its recent attacks. some Iranian groups have issued more threats against the British ambassador.
My morning take on whats happening outside of the clown circus in DC
Iran -
I’m including two links that examine the trials and tribulations of the Iranian leadership and economy. Far better for you to read than for me to try to condense here. In short, the walls are buckling. My concern is that in an effort to save their hides, the mullah’s and their Frankenstein republican guards hit men, they’ll start a war to divert attention from themselves onto a common enemy, uniting the country. Good reads and analysis.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20200116.aspx
https://pjmedia.com/spengler/how-fragile-is-irans-theocracy/
In the face of economic chaos, Hassan Rouhani has reportedly said there are now no limits on the country’s nuclear program. Another money pit that is contributing to the country’s economic woes.
Israel/Hamas -
As I’ve reported in past, Hamas and Israel are slowly working to some sort of cease fire agreement (in spite of yesterdays blow up). This is causing the PA and Abbas all sorts of indigestion. The PA is still butt-hurt that Hamas took control of the Gaza strip from them and believe the cease fire is an effort to cement their continued control. Some analysts suggest that an agreement with Hamas will destroy Palestinian “unity” and such would weaken PA and Abbas’ authority and stature as the ‘official’ leaders of Palestinian resistance to Israel.
Iraq -
Mixed signals over reports that US/European allies have resumed anti-ISIS operations with Iraqi units. Others say that is a false report.
US CW2 -
Eyes are on Richmond VA for next Monday’s Pro - 2A march.
good news I think
thanx
Morning -
Iran -
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei speech during Friday prays, which is the first time in 8 years for him. He praise the missile attack as from allah, said the Quds force is a humanitarian organization and Iran can strike anywhere. In short a propaganda speech to try to rally the faithful.
Elsewhere, protests continue, but details blocked due to internet interference.
In related, France will deploy the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier and its battle group from January to April to support French military operations in Middle East. These operations most likely are against ISIS remnants but may also serve to protect its shipping the gulf. Watching form more details.
The Bataan amphibious group is in the middle eastern area and other reinforcements continue, though the air bridge has slowed down now that the 82D ABN brigade is fully in the region.
Israel -
PIJ (Son’s of Zawari - PIJ affiliate) have been running a sustained IED balloon attacks for the past 24 hours or so. There may be multiple reasons some of the major ones would be
1) to derail Hamas/Israel peace progress (PIJ is not too fond of Hamas)
2) Rallying support to Iran and particular Khamenei speech.
3) IAF response to rocket attacks earlier in the week.
Some rumors that Hamas is turning a blind eye to these attacks. They do so at the risk of Israel bombing more Hamas facilities. Israel is on record to be holding Hamas responsible for all attacks - regardless of which faction does it.
Libya -
More rumblings about Turkish military involvement in the civil war and violating UN resolutions to prevent internationalization of the conflict. At last report Turkey as shipped about 2000 militia fighters to Libya to bolster the GNA forces. These are not Turkish military per say but significantly supported by military elements (advisors, etc).
CW2/Virginia -
The capitol grounds are now reported to be surrounded by barricades with limited access via only one check point (from what I’ve read).
The governor’s emergency declaration is being challenged in the courts, initially dismissed by a lower state court, is now been forwarded to the state supreme court.
In an interesting development, leftist Antifa and its counterparts - Red Neck Revolt and the John Brown Gun club are also protesting pending Virginia gun laws as making the weak and downtrodden more vulnerable to state rule and abuse, etc.
N Korea -
Continued regular airborne surveillance, though at lower levels than Christmas time. The nuclear bomb sniffer aircraft has been identified to have been deployed to Japan in the past few days.
this just in after I posted above
Iran/Syria
The T4 airbase was reportedly just hit again (within the past hour). Popular storage and transfer point for Iranian munitions bound for Lebanon and Hezbollah, has been hit numerous times. Watching for any significate additional details.
Thanks for the pings!
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