Ultimately many hundred thousand.
Issuing orders to use force against hundreds of troops surrounding Fort Sumter is still culpable even if no one gets hurt. Firing a gun at someone and missing is still considered an act of violence, even if no one gets hit.
The point is intent to harm, and lucky accidents notwithstanding, if you strike at someone with intent, it makes no difference if you connect on them or not, you still initiated the violence.
As I said up thread. Lincoln swung and missed. They swung after Lincoln and connected.
If Lincoln didn't want a fight, he should have left them alone. Lincoln did indeed want the fight, and he did exactly what he knew would provoke one.
Because the South chose to start a war.
The point is intent to harm, and lucky accidents notwithstanding, if you strike at someone with intent, it makes no difference if you connect on them or not, you still initiated the violence.
So when the South fired on the Start of the West and the Rhoda Shannon their attempt was to harm. So the only thing that prevented the war from starting earlier is that the North chose not to accept the South's acts of war.
As I said up thread. Lincoln swung and missed. They swung after Lincoln and connected.
More like three strikes and the South was out. Four years, massive devastation, and hundreds of thousand of lives later. Davis should have stayed out of the game I guess.