2. Independence for western Canada seems more realistic, but I don’t see that ever happening if the regions seceding from Canada are landlocked.
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Interestingly, back in the early ‘90s when I was learning a few things and becoming slightly less ignorant about US’s northern neighbor after the Quebecois independence thing had flared up, it was British Columbia that they had said was most likely to want to join the U.S. But I suspect that in the intervening decades they shifted a bit toward that coastal liberalism phenomenon.
BC is mostly Kalifornia North. Especially Vancouver.
Speaking of the 1990s, that was the same general time frame when some folks in Montana were discussing seccession (in response to the Clinton/Democrat 'assault weapons' ban). Article II, Section 2 of the Montana State Constitution apparently reserves the right to secede:
The people have the exclusive right of governing themselves as a free, sovereign, and independent state. They may alter or abolish the constitution and form of government whenever they deem it necessary.