Replies

Iraq/Iran
Setting. Last Friday a US base near Kirkuk was hit with 30 rockets, killing a civilian American contractor and wounding many others. After finding the improvised multiple rocket launcher pentagon attributed that strike to Kataeb Hezbollah, using the initials KH. ”KH has a strong linkage with Iran’s Quds Force and has repeatedly received lethal aid and other support from Iran that it has used to attack OIR coalition forces,”. The link to Iran was further confirmed by 4 rockets that failed to launch - all from Iran.

Sunday usaf jets struck 5 targets of KH at a base on the border of iraq and Syria, killing at least three senior Iranian officers and several dozen others.

Today a group called “Popular Mobilization brigades” which is possibly a cover organization for Iranian backed militias, announced they are preparing to drive America out of Iraq. Hezbollah in Lebanon announced support for Iraqi factions. This morning there are reports of a Malaysian tanker being captured by Iranian forces.

Assessment. Since October 28, at least 11 attacks have targeted Iraqi military bases where US soldiers or diplomats are deployed, including five rockets that hit Al-Asad air base on December 3, just four days after US Vice President Mike Pence visited troops there. Iran probably saw lack of US kinetic response as a sign of weakness. Yesterday’s air strikes indicate that the red line was crossed and restraint will no longer be in game. This comes as protests by iraqi’s against corruption and rule by Iran supported factions continue. The Iranian backed militias are hard to hide from these locals and could provide a wealth of targeting intel.

Path forward. Iran likely to continue to let their dirty work be done by these militias but it will come at a price both to their economy and support at home. Iran’s funding of Hezbollah in Lebanon, trying to establish bases to strike Israel from Syria, securing a land supply route to Syria have cost a lot. Throw in support to Houthi rebels, up tempo threats by navy and expanding their nuclear program AND dealing with the largest internal unrest in recent times has Iran burning the candle from multiple sources.

Potential for other attacks - high.

N Korea
The govt has been unusually silent since about December 15th, as leadership meetings continue. OSINT and other observers note this to be highly unusual. Airborne surveillance has dropped slightly and I’ve not seen any indications of an event in the very near future. The silence is loud.

Afghanistan
Reported truce with Taliban. Developing.

Libya
Turkey deploying surface naval ships and troops to Tripoli as its involvement in the civil war there increases.

Iran/Iraq
Already aware that Iranian backed militias broke into part of the US embassy compound. They were unsuccessful in getting very far. 100 marines with now appears to be a full brigade of the 82nd enroute. FYI the ready brigade has a standard of 96 hours to be fully wheels up. Potential of a total of 4000 troops to be deployed.

Iraqi security forces assisted to limit further trouble and current reports are that militias are withdrawing from the embassy and green zone. The attack was telegraphed as the US removed nonessential personnel after the kirkirk rocket attack.

Iranian militias had earlier in the day threatened to expand their actions to other embassies but nothing has happened according to my info. Embassy attack classical hoping to repeat the debacle during carter.

My assessment. Protests will continue against the embassy. If they manage to get further into the compound I strongly believe the forces there have been cleared for lethal response. The militias are in uniform and thus a very legitimate target. I also expect a second carrier task force will be rushed to the area. I expect other Air Force combat aircraft to be moved into the region. There is no doubt Iran crossed the red line again and serious target lists are being prepared.

N Korea
On top of it all the North Korea’s Party Plenum outcome document is out. still being analyzed. Some indicate some negotiation flexibility retained. However, Kim Jong Un said just hours ago that the “world will witness a new strategic weapon” and that North Korea will now take “shocking actual action”. Could be new ICBM or even a high altitude nuke test. No osint of either or timing. Thus mixed signals at the moment.