Been on the road but here is my take on key areas
Iran -
The ‘shooting down’ of the Iranian drone is reported to be only one of several incidents of Iranian poking of the USS Boxer. I see this as essentially probing attacks on this key amphibious assault ship to see just what will trigger a response. Iran denies losing a drone, but then if they deny it, they can’t retaliate for that which wasn’t lost. . . .
Still some confusion regarding the captured UAE tanker this week. UAE doesn’t recognize it and conflicting claims by Iran (responding to a call for ‘aid’ -or- aggressive capture). I see this as Iran nibbling around the edges, to provoke but not cross the line.
US sending forces into Saudi Arabia in an apparent effort to prepare a remote airfield to allow F22s and other aircraft to operate out of in the event of a shooting war with Iran.
Britain is deploying a third vessel to the Persian gulf region to protect its commercial assets. Iran still mad that GB captured one of its tankers trying to sneak in petroleum products to Syria in violation of sanctions.
Finally it is being reported that Revolutionary Guards members were killed in an airstrike by an unknown aircraft on a Popular Mobilization Forces camp in Iraq. This is critical in that this camp is also believed to contain long range rockets/missiles. Reports suggest drones were used, but given the long range missiles there is an outside chance that Israeli craft made the attack, as Netanyahu recently said that Israel could strike Iran anywhere.
heads up - Iran has reportedly captured a British tanker in the gulf - developing.