Iran/Shipping attack update
Highly disturbing - Pentagon believes crew of Norwegian-owned tanker Front Altair detained by Iran. US officials say crew first rescued by merchant vessel, Hyundai Dubai, but Iranian gunboats surrounded ship demanding the crew. Captain ordered crew to surrender. 23 crew members being held in Iran.
“detained”, not rescued, implies Iran hiding something.
USS Bainbridge has 21 mariners on board from commercial cargo vessel Kokuka Courageous. Bainbridge beat the Iranians to the vessel and the crew requested support from the Bainbridge. The Kokuka Courageous is the same vessel that was later videoed showing Iranian patrol vessel crew removing what is believed to be a ‘limpet’ mine from the side. What adds confusion to this situation is that the owner of the Kokuka Courageous is reported to have statded that the tanker crew saw “flying objects” before attack, suggesting ship wasn’t damaged by mines. Could this be a Houti (sp)drone? The current status of the Courageous is that it is heading for the harbor of Khor Fakkan (UAE).
Threat summary - the likelihood of US military response to these attacks is relatively low. Some intelligence analysts suggest that until US lives are lost or facilities/assets are attacked, President Trump will exercise restraint. Current assessment is that there will be on invasion of Iran, but a substantial destruction of its force projection capabilities in the region.