Iran
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Joseph Dunford and an unnamed representative of the intelligence community will brief the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives about Iran on Tuesday afternoon.
Yesterday I noted that Iran is hurting financially. Encountered an article in the Jewish press that bears this out (https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/lebanon/facing-financial-crisis-hezbollah-launches-financial-jihad/2019/05/20/).
In summary, Hezbollah fighters have had their salary cut in half and overall funding support from Iran cut from one billion to 800 million per year. Lebanese Shiites are complaining that too much money is going to support the civil war in Syria rather than more beneficial projects in Lebanon (since they are not fighting Israel). Hezbollah has cut staff and funding for many other projects to try to keep up their military budget. they have even sought out loans from Lebanese bank, but were turned down due to their terrorist status.
Competing for the money are the Houthi rebels in Yemen who are fighting a proxy war against Saudi Arabia.
Iran has also been reported to have quadrupled its production of enriched uranium in response to US sanctions and actions.
Again - long term the sanctions are putting the pinch on Iran and if the crank is tightened more, Iran could try to strike at US to save face and gather support from other Shiites. External and internal pressures are increasing. Watch proxy forces and potentially cyber attacks occurring first and if they are unsuccessful, they may go kinetic on a big US target.
Iran
SecDef Shanahan stated the US deployment of forces to the Persian gulf has “put on hold the potential for attacks on Americans”. This statement concerns me in that it represents a false sense of security. Iran has not been neutered in the matter, but maintains a potent threat. Much of this threat has been revealed in recent days with the documented deployment of anti-ship and anti-air missiles on Iranian held islands in the gulf. That, combined with their obsession to sink a US carrier could result in an asymmetrical attack. The sinking of the Lincoln would be a huge propaganda win as well as devastating to the US and President Trump. Our naval forces should be even more alert, and not less.
Syria
US is responding to reports that Syria potentially used chemical weapons in violation of cease fire agreements. The US has twice struck facilities related to chlorine production and may do so again if this pans out.
Israel/Gaza
In spite of the ‘cease fire’, Hamas “fire balloon” units plan on a substantial attack in the near term. Israel and the region is currently experiencing an exceptional heat wave and in spite of the wet winter, vegetation is dry.
US
Potential political storm warning. Pelosi meeting with caucus who are demanding immediate impeachment proceedings and then meeting with the POTUS. IF she buckles, the POTUS meeting may result in an ultimatum for the President to resign. This could cause extensive civil unrest - monitoring.