Threat Matrix 2019

Ignoring the circus and focusing on these:

Iran
There are reports that over 100 have been killed since the start of the gasoline price protests. I’ve not seen counts of how many have been injured. Iranian internet has been shut down since early in the protests. Since these reports have to be shuttled out of the country, actual numbers are probably higher. Protestors have also hit govt and banks hard, burning many.

Syria/Israel
More information and developments from yesterday’s rocket attack originating from Syria. Israel late yesterday launched two waves of retaliatory strikes. Govt spokespersons blamed Iranian Quds Force (The Quds Force is a unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) for the rocket attack. IAF struck Quds force bases and facilities as well as Syrian air defense missile batteries when those batteries attempted to engage IAF aircraft. Syria claiming there were civilian causalities. Israel claiming that Iranians were killed.

I suspect the rocket attack was a semi-unauthorized response to Israel’s actions against Islamic Jihad in gaza. The quickness of the counter strike telegraphs to Syria in particular that there better not be attacks against Israel originating from Syria. Observers note that Israel quickly took credit for the strikes - something rather unusual. This is again, probably a warning for Syria to reign in Iranian units operating in its territory.

Persian Gulf
The Lincoln taskforce transited into the gulf via the straits of hormutz yesterday. Its presence bolsters the recently formed multinational naval force to stop Iranian aggression against shipping.

Look around the world

Israel
Israel’s return to cutting the head off the snake tactics appears to have caused a pause in local terror originations. This is in part due to the drubbing of PIJ earlier this week.

Complicating matters are the criminal charges against Netanyahu. If Hamas/Hezbollah et al get froggy, the military response could positively swing things for him.

Iran
Riots continue as does internet blackout, so information is sketchy. It appears that as noted earlier, Iranian militas affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been brutally attacking protestors. Some reports of 250 dead, 3700 injured and 7000 arrested (from National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)/Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) opposition group).

Global Government Protests
Significant protests have sprung up all over the world the past several months -
Hong Kong
Iraq
Iran
Lebanon
Algeria
Bolivia
Argentina
Venezuela

Now breaking massive protests in Colombia. The govt has closed its border, instituted curfews and banned liquor sales. Protests appear to be centered against policies by the President Ivan Duque. In town, rioters were fired upon by security/police when they attempted to break into gated communities. Developing.

US Impeachment/coup
The abject failure of the democrats to establish an impeachable offence - yet the house likely will vote to impeach only to see it fail in the senate - has raised a specter of a more “kinetic” coup of some type. 0bama during his reign removed dozens of senior military officers and replaced them with bootlicking political types. These types are still in place. Once unthinkable, kinetic action of some sort is increasingly becoming possible.

Recent polls cite 59% of voters fear that Trump opponents will resort to violence to remove him. 44% of blacks expect a civil war within 5 years.

The swamp, with denizens in the CIA, DOJ, FBI and elsewhere may be moved to forcibly act. Pray this doesn’t happen, but keep you powder dry.

Once unthinkable, kinetic action of some sort is increasingly becoming possible.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

You will have 2 million armed patriots on the streets across America if that happens.

It would be a crisis which would initiate a Civil War. Exactly what the Chinese would want for example.I am certain that he Chinese have considered kinetic action, they have the entire hateful Dem party for cover.

May divine providence protect our president and his family, and may the USMC presidential detail and the Secret Service presidential detail have the blessing of awareness and action to preserve the precious life of our President against enemies foreign and domestic.

Start of Thanksgiving week

Israel-
Dynamic tension as usual. Netanyahu faces criminal charges and a third election attempt. He (and US war watchers) warn that Iran is planning another attack against Israel. The Iranian threat has been pretty much standard fare, however, recent conditions necessitate greater examination.
1. The decapitation attack on radical Iranian supported PIJ and resultant rocket / IAF campaign that left PIJ slapped around hard
2. Target airstrikes in Syria on Iranian (and supporting Syrian) targets following a spattering of rockets fired from Syria.
3. Continued civil unrest and protests that are symptomatic of the imploding Iranian economy. Iran is trying to fund Houtie against Saudi Arabia, fund/arm Hezebollah/Hamas/PIJ et al against Israel, fund nuclear development, prepare for potential action against the US, etc.
4. Civil unrest in Iraq threatening its foot hold there as well (costing even more $$$).

Best to keep eyes on this.

On the radar - Palestinians are calling for a ‘day of rage’ Tuesday to protest the US recognition of legality of Israel claim to the West Bank and settlement.

Hong Kong
Establishment pro Beijing politicians were thoroughly trounced, and I mean trounced, in weekend elections. Pro-democracy contenders were victorious in 347 of the 452 district council seats up for grabs; pro-Beijing candidates won 60 seats; while independents - many of them pro-democracy - got 45, according to the South China Morning Post. Massive turnout - 71%. There were no protests during the voting period. According to the BBC - “The territory’s district councilors have little political power and mainly deal with local issues such as bus routes and rubbish collection, so the district elections do not normally generate such interest.But the councillors also get to choose 117 of their number to sit on the 1,200-member committee that selects Hong Kong’s chief executive, who is then formally appointed by the Chinese government.

The landslide results mean all of those 117 seats are now likely to go to pro-democracy candidates, so they will have a greater influence over that decision, which is set to be made in 2022. “

This huge landslide after over 6 months of protest is forcing the China-picked HK leadership and Beijing pause in how it goes forward from here. With such support for democracy any heavy handedness by Beijing would very likely result in serious push back by the world community.

N.Korea
NK military forces conducted artillery training in contradiction to agreements with SK. Kim also directed NK forces to make all preparations to be war ready before winter. Kim feels confident in crossing the red line with SK but still toes it with the US.

Iraq
Protests in Iraq are ramping up to what some are now considering to be an incipient revolution. This is turning into a Shia vs Sunni conflict. Post Saddam, the Sunni went from leading the country to marginal minority in government. Shia went to dominating the govt and fell into Iran’s pocket and control. Many of the protestors have been gunned down by snipers believed to be a part of the Iranian-controlled Shia militias - adding to the religious fury. Iran sees these “militias” critical to projecting its power into Syria and eventually Israel.

Iran -
Protest/riots continue and internet/cell phone service continues to be cut. Hundreds reportedly have been killed many, many more injured and/or arrested.

Lebanon -
Protests have expanded with the Lebanese Army being deployed to try to enforce peace after Hezbollah and Amal supporters started fighting in Beirut. Both groups are shia in beliefs and violent rivals. In 1985 they fought each other for control of Beirut (War of the Camps). One historic difference between the two is Hezbollah generally had support of the Palestinians while Amal has support of Syrian govt and military. Current protests/riots may be giving them cover to issue some paybacks.

Hong Kong
Prodemocracy victory still has the communist Chinese backed leadership in HK on its heels.

N Korea
Rumors indicating that NK’s artillery firing is just the start of a progressive ratcheting of tensions designed to give NK leverage in negotiations.

Iraq -
Anti-Iranian / govt corruption protests are really targeting Iran now. The Iranian consulate in Najaf has been set on fire by protestors (within past hour). These protests as noted before are against Iranian influence in the country and govt.

Hong Kong
Police are set to move into HK Polytechnic University to look for protestors. School staff have stated there are none. This is the first aggressive move since the tsunami of pro-democracy votes a few days ago.

Israel / Gaza
Minor protests yesterday supporting the PIJ leader killed by Israel a week ago. 4 rockets were launched into Israel, and IAF replied with two massive waves of airstrikes. Quieted down quickly after that.

Afghanistan-
POTUS safely back after surprise visit to troops. Liberal heads exploded.
Announced tentative resumption of talks with taliban

Iraq -
Burning of Najab Iranian consulate has triggered Iranian-backed militias to take over the town with Iraqi forces withdrawing. Expect high numbers of casualties. Iraq’s PM announced his resignation due to protests.

Israel/Hamas -
Reports of talks resuming between the two. Still in the beginning stages with Hamas talking tough. I think one of the events that may have moved this was Israel’s careful and precise targeting of PIJ assets and facilities. No Hamas sites were targeted. Slapping PIJ down was beneficial to Hamas as PIJ was a rival that refused to come under Hamas leadership.

****

NYC’s Muslim Community Patrol to enforce the “fundamentals of the Sharia”

Nov 29, 2019 12:00 pm By Robert Spencer

“Can’t say weren’t warned. But warning about such things is “Islamophobic.””

“Clarion Special Report: NY’s Sharia Patrol,”
by Ryan Mauro and Martin , Clarion Project, October 10, 2019 (thanks to Creeping Sharia):

Not surprisingly, the sight of cars – made to look like police New York City cars — emblazoned with the words “Muslim Community Patrol” cruising the avenues of Brooklyn and Staten Island—in the United States of America—was quick to generate news coverage, commentary and alarm.

Most of the mainstream American media reacted in typical fashion. Ever fearful of offending radicalized Muslim communities or digging too deeply into unsavory truths, they gushed in glowing news reports about the new patrol cars and portrayed them as a “neighborhood watch” for Muslim-dominated areas.

https://www.jihadwatch.org/2019/11/nycs-muslim-community-patrol-to-enforce-the-fundamentals-of-the-sharia

Israel -
Still a tense truce between Hamas and Israel. “Times of Israel” notes that recent border ‘protests’ (right of return) haven’t been emphasized as in the past. IF Israel can come to some sort of agreement, this would permit them to direct more focus on the northern threat from Hezbollah and Iran. Time will tell if Hamas can sway the sheeple over to the idea of being at peace. A task made difficult by the many splinter groups like PIJ

Iraq
Iranian militia take over of Najab has resulted in local Iraqi tribes taking up arms as it now appears that conflict will escalate. The rising anti-Iranian sentiment is linked to the protests of Iraqi govt corruption. These Iranian supported militias are the ones primarily shooting protestors.

Iran
In spite of economic crunch at home, Iran has continued to press on modernizing its arsenal of weapons. Most recently their drone and cruse missile technology have shown success (see the attack on the saudi oil refinery). They face near open rebellion internally, continued life and material loss in Syria and Iraq. How long they can burn the candle from both ends remains to be seen. If pressure increases, the Iranian leadership may strike out at Israel/US to distract from internal challenges and try to gain global support for its form of Jihad. The LA times reported that an all out gulf conflict between Iran and its enemies could kill over 100,000.

Hong Kong
More protests however much less violent than recent. The signing of the Hong Kong Human rights and democracy act by President Trump has caused China to squirm because it cannot hide its actions nor act with impudence.

N Korea
Return to anti-Japanease rhetoric over the weekend, and Japan not til too thrilled. Kim still toes the line on the size/range of rocket launches, but clearly is trying to intimidate Japan. This may be due to a breakdown in S. Korea/Japan cooperation and talks.
Kim meanwhile may or may not realize a new famine is striking much of his country and with winter setting in will stress the citizens as well as the military. China has been supplying a lot of food of late, but is facing similar food shortages.

Israel/Hamas
As I noted yesterday, delicate (for lack of a better word) between Hamas and Israel on an extended ceasefire agreement is at best most difficult. Netanyahu stated that until Hamas stops all rocket attacks against Israel, such an accord is impossible. Hamas OTOH faces a nearly impossible task controlling its elements which almost daily launch something (rocket or mortar) into Israel.

Iran
NYT reports that the protests in Iran are the most serious in over 40 years. In comparison, “The 2009 protests are believed to have resulted in 72 deaths over a period of many months. The current protests have led to 180 to 450 deaths in just four days.” The pressure cooker the imams find themselves in just keeps getting tighter and tighter and may result in a lashing out to divert attention.

Iraq
Strategypage.com has an excellent summary of the current uprising in Iraq
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20191128.aspx
IN summary the protests are not just about corruption but also the Iranian efforts to control Iraq and exploit the corruption to do so. Good read

Mexico/narcoterrorism
The shootout between a cartel and govt forces in Villa Union, around 40 miles southwest of Eagle Pass, Texas is a harbinger of potential similar events in the US. It is an open secret that cartels are thoroughly imbedded in the US and that it is only a matter of time before similar violence starts here. Official designation as terrorism is a good first step, but we need to be able to start striking hard. Recent reports of narcoterrorism ‘observation posts’ that served to guide drug trafficking into the US are a good first point. Posse comatus may hinder direct military involvement - more legal minds provide input, but I’m sure SF would love to eat these terrorists for breakfast.

Continued ongoing issues to watch

N Korea
In some of the most pointed rhetoric lately, NK has set a year end deadline for the US to capitulate to their demands for talks. Propaganda from the NK foreign ministry stated “up to the US what Christmas gift it will select to get”.
S Korean intelligence source stated there is a possibility that NK might launch a medium to long-range missile by the year’s end. Imagery indicates that numerous reinforced concrete pads have been recently constructed that can support vehicle mounted ICBM currently in the NK inventory. Observers have noted an increase in allied surveillance aircraft patrolling the DMZ. Japan deployed and Aegis destroyer into the sea of Japan.

NK telegraphing its punch? Apparently regionally they are taking the threat seriously and collecting intelligence on it. If NK launches a medium or long range missile it would be crossing the red line set by Trump and earlier agreements. While this kind of bluster from NK has worked in the past, I suspect that they are misjudging Trump again.

Iran
videos have leaked out allegedly showing Iranian security forces murdering some 100 protestors. Still difficult to get details given the continued news/internet blackouts.

Iraq
Protests continue Basra province with student marches. See previous post for details on uprising.

On my radar today

N.Korea
there is a lot of buzz today concerning the convergence of these events.
1) Kim made another Mt. Paektu trip. As I observed in October, this is a ‘sacred’ place to NK and Kim has reportedly gone there prior to making big decisions in the past.
2) Yesterday NK propagandists warned the US about carefully choosing its “Christmas present” amidst increasing rhetoric.
3) The Central Committee of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) will hold a plenary meeting in “the latter half” of December, state media reported on Wednesday, in what will represent the 2nd event of its kind this year. This has caused many observers to suggest that a major policy change is in the works.
4) The year end “warning” is fast approaching.

Kim has been unhappy ever since he imploded at the Saigon meeting that didn’t happen with Trump. Since then the NK hardliners have regained his ear.

SK, Japan and US forces have increased their surveillance of NK, looking for any precursors as to what may be in store.

Iran
Word reportedly from the sources in the Pentagon say Iran is going to instigate some kind of aggression against the US in the near future. One could write this off as response to increasingly threatening rhetoric in recent days, but consider this -

Iran is up to its eyeballs in rioting / protests due to economic policies. The economic collapse is due largely to the emplacement of sanction drying up income, plus Iran’s heavy investment in proxy war (Huouti and Hezebollah) and incursions into Syria and Iraq. What the mullahs missed that instead of the populace ‘rallying around the flag’ against the evil US, they have turned against the mullahs. To spare their rear ends, the mullahs may instigate a situation in an attempt to get the populace to ignore their economic plight and rally around them once more. Such is an act of desperation of despots.

Hamas/PIJ
Representatives met in Egypt to try to heal the rift that occurred when PIJ attacked Israel and Hamas did not support. A lot of kissy-kissy press releases, but I’m convinced the fractures are still there.

Iran seems to be popping up in a more significant way lately. It should be monitored more than the clown show in congress,

1) Yesterday Pentagon reports of intelligence indicating a significant Iranian action is forth coming. What is the basis?
- US navy intercepted a boat carrying advanced missile/rocket components to Yemen.
- US military reports drones probing American positions in Iraq
- Iranian rhetoric stating that they are in the progress of targeting 21 US bases in the region
- The open secret of Iranian bases being established in Iraq loaded with short range rockets
- France, Germany and the United Kingdom say Iran has developed nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, which goes against a U.N. Security Council resolution.

2) Internal protests - observers report that the current protests are substantially larger than those in 2009 and 2017. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), the muscle for the mullahs have been very brutal in their efforts to suppress current protests.
This has not worked very well as those who they’ve killed are being viewed as martyrs, solidifying public opposition to the rulers. Thousands are reported turning out for their funerals. Instead of terrifying the population, its galvanizing them.

3) Continued failure and expense at trying to set up an attack against Israel. Overnight a major Iranian munitions facility in eastern Syria, near the Iraqi border, was blown up by unidentified aircraft - probably IAF. This is part of the continued interdiction of munitions by Israel in Syria.

4) Iran losing grip on corrupt govts. The resignations of the Lebanese and Iraqi Prime Ministers - both of which are Iranian puppets - indicate their grips are weakening. Both have been removed due to protests in their countries against corruption and Iranian proxy forces (Hezbollah and Iraqi militias). Combined with their own internal protests, the mullahs are likely to become increasingly desperate to change the focus off Iran and onto a ‘common enemy’ - most likely Israel and the US.

All of these points indicate that the potential of some kind of military action are on the significant rise and deserves close monitoring.

Lest we forget the purpose of Threat Matrix threads.

BREAKING: SHARIA LAW BOMBSHELL COMES OUT FROM DEMOCRATS’ STAR IMPEACHMENT ‘WITNESS’

statedepartmentwatch.org ^ | 12/5/19 | Gateway Pundit

(Gateway Pundit) – The House Judiciary Committee, chaired by Rep. Jerrold Nadler, kicked off its first impeachment circus Wednesday morning.

Noah Feldman, the first impeachment ‘witness’ the Dems rolled out on Wednesday not only called for Trump’s impeachment shortly after Trump was sworn in, he actually argued in a NY Times op-ed titled, “Why Shariah?” that Islamic Sharia law is more humane than US law.

Noah Feldman, a Harvard Law professor, bashed legal systems created by Western countries including the United States and argued Sharia law is more ‘just’ and ‘fair’ than the US Supreme Court.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3798571/posts

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