Posted on 01/21/2019 2:34:05 PM PST by KC_Lion
Heading into the weekend
Iran
Thursday British marines seized an Iranian owned tanker illegally destined to Syria. Today the Gibraltar has extended the seizure holding 14 days. Iran has responded by threatening to capture a British ship. Not sure if related but Trump tweeted today “Iran has to be very, very careful,”.
Observation - as the sanctions are internationally recognized, any Iranian attempt to seize a British vessel would likely trigger military actions by US and British forces.
US has called for an IAEA meeting to address iran’s Declaration to increase the concentration of its uranium stockpile. Also revealed is that Iran has exceeded its allowed amount of heavy water.
RUMINT - Iran got its hands on a nonfunctional old Soviet warhead.
Observation - uranium enrichment will become an increasing issue and potential cause of war.
Iran/Syria
Russia is reported to be increasingly nervous about Iran positioning it’s Syria forces. Russian military is concerned about the safety of their troops, as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah are currently deployed near their forces in eastern Syria. Russia expecting Israel to launch more attacks in the near future.
Venezuela
Protests reportedly planned for this weekend. This is the first reported activity since Guideo’s aborted coup.
China
several thousand Chinese are protesting in Wuhan, uncertain if related to Hong Kong protests. China is cracking down hard on dissidents across the country.
Back from a week in the woods.
Iran
Continues forward with uranium enrichment and restart of heavy water plant. Threatens more apocalyptic destruction of enemies.
Iranian supported militias in Iraq are increasing falling into disfavor with the Iraq govt.
Iran attempted last Wednesday (10 July) to capture a British tanker in the Persian gulf. Apparently a nearby British warship was close enough for them to call it off. This would be in retaliation for the seizure last week of an Iranian tanker headed for Syria. Japan is also considering sending defense naval forces to the Persian gulf region - probably to protect vessels headed to Japan with oil. In response to continued threats and this attempt the US is looking at sending command and control vessels into the region to better coordinate actions. They would likely work to coordinate the developing multi-national naval force gathering to protect shipping.
On a related note, Houthi rebels have developed “Blow Fish” unmanned low-profile explosive boats in Red Sea. Two have been discovered so far. Probably targeting Saudi related vessels.
Israel
Pretty much status quo. Hamas and Hezbollah are beating their chests and Israel replies back.
Hong Kong
Protests over extradition laws (now fully pulled) are continuing.
Antifa/leftists
Poorly attended rallies against ICE were reported. The most significant is the attack on an ICE facility in Washington state by a 69 yr old antifa supporter affiliated with the John Brown Gun club - an antifa affiliated ‘militia’ movement. His opus stated he wanted to start an increasing violent assault on ICE and the govt. John Brown gun club and Redneck revolution are leftist/antifa groups that have been growing and arming themselves for conflict should CW2 become kinetic.
My observation - this could be the start of ‘lone wolf’ antifa related attacks against not only ICE but could spread to other govt agencies and conservatives.
Cyberattack?
The EU’s Galileo satellite navigation system with 22 satellites is completely off line - and no one knows why. Designed to be a backup to the US GPS system. Some suspect cyber attack - probably Iran (IMHO) - in retribution to the lack of support given Iran during the current sanctions.
****
Omar’s in charge, tells press: We will no longer ‘allow’ you to ask Muslims to condemn terrorism
BPR ^ | 7/16/19 | Tom Tillison
WE will no longer allow YOU ...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3765048/posts
Been on the road but here is my take on key areas
Iran -
The ‘shooting down’ of the Iranian drone is reported to be only one of several incidents of Iranian poking of the USS Boxer. I see this as essentially probing attacks on this key amphibious assault ship to see just what will trigger a response. Iran denies losing a drone, but then if they deny it, they can’t retaliate for that which wasn’t lost. . . .
Still some confusion regarding the captured UAE tanker this week. UAE doesn’t recognize it and conflicting claims by Iran (responding to a call for ‘aid’ -or- aggressive capture). I see this as Iran nibbling around the edges, to provoke but not cross the line.
US sending forces into Saudi Arabia in an apparent effort to prepare a remote airfield to allow F22s and other aircraft to operate out of in the event of a shooting war with Iran.
Britain is deploying a third vessel to the Persian gulf region to protect its commercial assets. Iran still mad that GB captured one of its tankers trying to sneak in petroleum products to Syria in violation of sanctions.
Finally it is being reported that Revolutionary Guards members were killed in an airstrike by an unknown aircraft on a Popular Mobilization Forces camp in Iraq. This is critical in that this camp is also believed to contain long range rockets/missiles. Reports suggest drones were used, but given the long range missiles there is an outside chance that Israeli craft made the attack, as Netanyahu recently said that Israel could strike Iran anywhere.
heads up - Iran has reportedly captured a British tanker in the gulf - developing.
there are other reports of Iranians boarding a second British tanker.
Captured tanker is british flagged but Swedish owned Stena Impero. RUMINT indicates ‘hostile’ action preceded the capture. Hostile actions include high speed boats with helicopter support.
.
Emergency meetings in Britain underway, with probable consultation with the US. We will likely support GB in response.
Ship is currently being taken into Iranian waters at Revolutionary Guard base at Qeshm.
Thanks for the ping; post; thread. BUMP!
Confirmed, second British flagged tanker has been captured by Iran.
The second captured ship is the Mesdar, aLiberia flagged and operated by Norbulk Shipping UK
RUMINT !!!!! RUMINT !!!!!
Reports now surfacing that the British LR2 Poseidon is being seized. Additionally, the British Star Osprey may be aggressed against as well.
quick evaluation
Iran now has about 40 individuals of multiple nations in custody (not including the potential of the capture of other ships). This is setting itself up to be a repeat of the US Embassy hostage scenario, with Iran daring the west to rescue the crews and if the west retaliates, punish/kill those crews. Enough US ‘interests’ may now have been crossed that an aggressive action will take place
1. Rescue operation - we have adequate Marines and air assets to do this, but it has the potential to be bloody.
2. Strike Iranian naval assets to prevent/inhibit future seizures
3. Institute convoy operations as in the past.
4. Combination of the above.
5. Announce that one Iranian city will be utterly obliterated every day at random, inshallah, until the hostages and their ships are released unharmed and undamaged.
If people or equipment are injured or damaged, 10X proportional damage will be inflicted on Iranian interests, not limited to those in Iran proper, just as a friendly reminder to not do that again.
You have 5 business days to think it over...
Oh, and any Iranian military assets who attempt to interfere will simply cease to exist.
Being reported, US is flying armed air cover over the region with specific eye to US ships, but could respond to distress calls from UK ships too.
British sources say that no British citizens are being held by Iran, that crews came from other countries, including Russia.
Potential development -
The ship Medsar - the second ship reportedly captured by Iran today - is now reported to be headed away from Iran and increasing speed. This is based on observation of ship transponders only at this time. Not confirmed by any official source.
State media of Iran’s Islamic Regime claims that the IRGC Navy has released the UK owned #Mesdar
Interesting point about the Mesdar and why it has been released. It makes the oil run between Saudi Arabia and CHINA (one of Iran’s few friends)
F-22s, F-35s ... smoke em if you got em former Iranian navy.
As yesterday’s dust settles in the Persian gulf......
Iran claims the captured British vessel ‘collided’ with an Iranian fishing boat. Right - and I have a bridge to sell you.
Iran has stated that they will board at Will any and all vessels to inspect for ‘enviromental compliance ‘. Expect more of the same for the next few weeks.
GB has ruled out a military response at this time. Not sure what tricks they have up their sleeves. They only have two combat vessels in the gulf with a third encounter. Not enough to be very effective even against iran’s Navy. Other European countries have joined GB to condemn the action.
My analysis - action unlikely to gain support to relent on Iranian sanctions, but does show Iran to be the aggressor. Iran failed to capture any British citizens for hostage purposes (one of their favorite tactics) and now must face anger from other countries. Doubt that they will release the ship and crew before the British seized Iranian tanker is.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.