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I think the evidence is clearly in your favor, but as someone who lives and works every day “Behind the Blue Wall”, let me counter with a few reasons for optimism:

1. Conservatives have one giant honking massive advantage against the Left: human nature. The left has politicized all of those institutions to which you are referring because they are absolutely obsessed with their dissatisfaction with the way things are, and have always been. But they’re not just dissatisfied with, say, Bush’s war in Iraq or the fact that there are homeless people. They are dissatisfied with the fact that some people live better than others, that men and women play different roles in their families and in society, that there is suffering in the world, that nations compete against each other, sometimes violently. Conservatives understand that none of that will ever change, it’s inherent to who we are as human beings. Can you imagine how frustrating your life would be if you couldn’t accept that you were not tall and athletic enough to play professional basketball? Multiply that times a million and that’s the lot of the left.

2. Conservatives particularly in America have another closely related huge structural advantage against the Left: the status quo. You heard it from Governor Cuomo: “America was never that great”. The Left hates the Constitution, the flag, the anthem, capitalism, federalism, American exceptionalism, families, freedom, petroleum, automobiles, etc., . . . it’s not an exaggeration to say that “mom and apple pie” are not long for the good graces of the Left. We’re just defending all of that, and we’re also fortunate that the founders based all of that (and the modern day extensions on that list) on human nature. So the Left in America is going up against not only human nature, but a status quo structure of society that is based in an understanding of human nature otherwise superior to any other yet developed.

3. Over the long term conservatives have another big honking giant structural advantage: the Left does not value procreation. In fact, nearly everything they do goes against procreation and they’d be a tiny minority at this point absent their very smart strategy of importing millions of people from impoverished countries and cultures. This is why the immigration debate is so existential for them: cut off that spigot and down the drain they go in the space of a generation.

4. The last structural advantage that I’d say conservatives have is the argument. I can speak as someone who grew up knowing nothing about conservatism at all. For me, conservatism was just caricatured as Boss Hogg. But as soon as I was exposed (via the Internet) to the actual argument, it wasn’t very long before I flipped. I’ve heard zillions of stories of left to right transformations, but almost none of the opposite. I think any time we manage to level the playing field for argumentation, we will win 90% of the converts.

But yes, you’re right. There are long odds going the opposite direction.