No, they would not have won at all. The bottom line is that if Lincoln, or McClellan (who opposed him in the 1864 election) had not continued the war, the business interests in the North would have found somebody pliable enough to continue the war. Have to say that i'm very surprised that your cynicism concerning Northern monied interests didn't let you see that.
After all, it was not as if they or the Southern aristocracy were doing the actual fighting and dying (with very few exceptions on both sides). The war was going to continue to a conclusion no matter who was in the White House or the Gray House in Richmond.
Rich man's war, poor man's fight. Same as it ever was
That is a point that I hadn't really considered. It is possible that that would have happened, but it occurs to me that Lincoln might have been their pinnacle of control. At this point, the "Deep State"/Crony Capitalist/Establishment was just getting it's footing, and it may not have yet gotten so confident that it could continue the war without Lincoln.
But you have a valid point for further consideration. Yes, they would have wanted to continue the war by any means, because to fail at it would relegate their fortunes to evaporate.
Rich man's war, poor man's fight. Same as it ever was
And that is probably the most apt description of it.