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My state-side VP boss tried to buck up my hesitance in making executive decisions. He said to think like a quarterback, where anything over fifty percent pass completion was good. I thought of it as making irrevocable decisions based on insufficient information. I later learned that this is the art of business.

Very true. I have known many good and many bad managers/businessmen. Some all data based and some gut instinct based. Most would be considered successful and have a pretty good hit rate. No decision is a decision, once I learned that things got easier. As a business owner myself I make a hundred small decisions every day on experience and gut. The big decisions require data. I was lucky enough to learn from some very good businessmen during my travels.

There are however many(most) science fields that still have unknowns. My back fence neighbor is a “gold” geologist. He is very good and highly sought out for investigations of mining site potential yield. He will admit after few drinks that geology is not an exact science. Sure he can lab test specimens but when it comes to some big issues like “how did this form - exactly” that there are some assumptions.

Meteorology suffers from over mediazation. I quit watching TV for weather forecasts, I go straight to my Indian Weather Rock or the weather service.