I’m more inclined to think we’d see a break-off faction from the dem tent. The blacks could take their toys and form their own party, maybe use their numbers by selling them to whoever needs their vote. No matter what happens, too many in the dem tent don’t like each other.
You got that right. Blacks are not fond of Hispanics or the large LGBT element within their party. I think some of them can read the writing on the wall because they can see clearly that the Democrats are catering more to those two groups than any other factions in the party. All is not well in the Democrat Party either. There is also the extreme far left, aka the Bernie voters, who are not going to go away quietly either.
Currently there are serious efforts to form a Bernie Sanders party, a Trump party, and a Centrist party. There is more money in the Centrist party than the wing parties. The Centrist party would be controlled by pragmatists of no particular ideology. aka opportunists. They would be willing to welcome socially liberal, fiscally conservative types, which would be their base. But they would also pander to every conceivable person unhappy with the two major parties, regardless of ideology. Because they would be willing to accept anyone, they have the potential to grow far more than the wing parties. The wing parties constantly seek purity. Would a wing party accept me, who voted for Trump but disagrees with Trump on immigration and trade? Picture a replay of Truman and Dewey in 1948. The Chicago Tribune was sure that Dewey would win because the Dixiecrats and Strom Thurmond took one wing of the party and Wallace and the socialists took the other wing of the Democrats. The Tribune figured the Democrats were split 3 ways and thus the united Republicans would win. In a 2020 with 4 or 5 parties all bigger than the LP and Green parties of the past presidential years, who would be the Harry Truman who defies conventional wisdom to win? Think about that logically, not emotionally.