Ref - Are you factoring in the differences in early voting?
For example, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have essentially no early voting, so the election results in those states will presumably be more influenced by “late breaking voters.”
North Carolina, on the other hand, may have already collected 50% of their ballots.
I have New Hampshire going to Trump. Pennsylvania does have early voting but you can change your votes there. Pennsylvania could to Trump, I have him losing it by 0.2%. When margins are this close, momentum means so much, but PA is one tough nut to crack. I lived there when Bush ran in 2000 and remember Philly always providing what they need. It could happen. If Michigan really is tied, like a poll today shows, PA could go.
If you want to study voter fraud come to NH.