Posted on 10/24/2016 12:30:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
As we prepare to enter the final two weeks of this presidential campaign, here's how things shape up:
On the one hand, we have a candidate who's accused of hiring crazed fanatics to aid in her campaign.
On the other hand, we have a candidate who gets crazed fanatics to help in his campaign for free.
Who's going to win? At the moment the most reliable poll in recent history is giving a slight edge to the guy who fires up fanatics for free.
That's Donald Trump, and as of Saturday the Investors Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence Poll had him leading Hillary Clinton by two points in a four-way race. (Check the RealClearPolitics daily summaries of the latest polls here.)
That lead is within the margin of error of course, but it's fascinating that Trump could still be in contention after a couple of what looked like the worst weeks in history.
To find out why, I put in a call to Raghavan Mayur. He's the president of Ramsey-based Technometrica, the company that does the actual polling for Investor's Business Daily.
The IBD/TIPP tracking poll was rated as "the most accurate" in the 2012 race by the New York Times. While other polls had Republican Mitt Romney up by several points going into the election, Mayur's poll correctly showed Obama ahead.
Check this Business Insider article about how IBD/TIPP called the race at this point in the 2012 cycle. They had Obama up 3 points while other polls were calling it for Romney.
In 2008, the poll got Obama's victory margin right down to the decimal point at 7.2. And the cycle before that, the poll put George W. Bush at 2.1 going into an election he won with a 2.5 percent margin....
(Excerpt) Read more at nj.com ...
This is not about polls or individual voters. This is about electoral votes. Hillary has many more than enough of those strongly leaning to her. As much as I hate to say it, this one seems to be over.
All we have now is hope and prayers. And turn out.
I work in a mall in Henderson Nevada where people are voting early. Long lines. One man in line yelled “who is voting for trump?” Nearly everyone raised their hands.
Anecdotal but interesting
I have a BIKERS FOR TRUMP patch on my vest.
People keep offering me money for it.
But it is about polls if you believe that Hillary has garnered enough states to win in the electoral college, right?
If she wins, the First Woman President will be an even greater failure than the First Black President was. She will start with over half the nation against her and a character that will not change for the better.
Oh, sorry I’m not more excited about the way this election is going. It’s all about States! She has about 350 electoral votes going her way. A motivated base won’t do much if it’s from States with few electoral votes.
I intend to remember...
Yes! What is going on with Hannity? I only caught a few minutes of his show in the car, but, yikes.
Anyone know why the bogus “ABC Tracking Poll” wasn’t updated today? Not much of a “tracking” poll if you report once and then stop reporting. Or maybe they realized their own #s were BS.
How much is the Hillary campaign paying you for your concern trolling?
Nah, state polls mirror the national polls in turn out. If the national turnout polls are wrong, so are the states. I can tell you Trump is looking good in NC, Ohio, IA and FL at the very least. Black vote so far in NC, for example, is down MASSIVELY - 8% less of total early votes vs 2012 at the same point while independents are up 30% - and 85% white with very good male ratio. Trump is up 2% in early FL voting. Ohio & IA Dems are ahead but by significantly less than 2012. It is possible for Trump to win the national vote and lose the electoral college, though, so we need to pick up CO, PA, NJ, NH or something along those lines as well.
The writer is a prick.
“She has about 350 electoral votes”
The votes have already been tallied?
I have to hide.
I have learned the hard way to pick my battles.
I live in a flamingly leftist locale (and do not currently have the means to relocate). Being open and candid with such bigots would lose me both my vocation and avocation.
(I once allowed myself - two years ago - to calmly disagree with someone who had aggressively interrupted me, while I was in a private, pre-existing, conversation with one other patron, to tell me very arrogantly that I was wrong in stating that the climate change models’ accuracy were debatable; when I failed to meekly acquiesce, he told me that I was a “terrible person” and that he knew my employer and would get me fired. He tried to do just that. Fortunately, my then-employer was more reasonable than most I have had, and only lectured me on “not engaging” with customers - meaning they could engage with me as much as they wanted.)
I hate it, but there it is:
Advocating for Trump where I live is social suicide.
In the same way that Stalin tallied votes, yes, if they have their way.
” She has about 350 electoral votes going her way.”
Says who, exactly? Not a single reliable source has said that, only extreme left-wing little bimbos have, but no one else.
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