Pollsters are starting to calibrate what they say. They don’t want to look as stupid as they did during the GOP primary season.
A sane month is not only Trump being on message as opposed to twittering about extraneous and personal considerations. It’s also about us countering the tremendous advertising and ground game of the other side.
Trump has yet to start advertising. I figure Hillary is tipping the scales by 5 to 10 points based on unanswered advertising. Republicans generally don’t have anywhere as near as much money as Democrats and simply have to withstand the the early advertising. In 2008, McCain was overwhelmed. In 2012, Romney was outspent but not as badly.
A month to six weeks of matching their advertising with ours should balance things out. If Trump is within 5 points at this stage of the campaign, he is in good position to win.
Because we don’t have anywhere as much money as they do, the orders are to not fire until we see the whites of their eyes. It’s not the first time we’ve been given orders like this.
Neither McCain nor Romney were a billionaire.