I agree with this assessment. Hillary maxed out at 48% after her convention. If Trump stays on this course (calm & collected), he will definitely win. Hillary has not been able to get out of the 40s in any poll. The result is baked in.
I think if you sub-divide all the polls into fifty states....there are probably 25 states in the running...which is bad news for Hillary. She would need a ton of money to run four-star campaign efforts in twenty-five states. On top of that, she has to worry about the three debates. If I were her, I’d find some way to limit it to just one single debate. Call in sick or whatever.