Maybe Trump wont win, but the Establishment isn’t going to let Cruz win either. Cleveland in July is going to be a rather “hot” town.
>>Maybe Trump wont win, but the Establishment isn’t going to let Cruz win either.<<
You guys keep saying that, that Cruz will be passed over if Trump doesn’t make it on the first ballot, but so far I’ve seen absolutely no analysis of how that happens other than “they just will!”
Despite the obvious division in here between rabid Trump and rabid Cruz supporters, most Trump voters will have very little trouble switching their support to Cruz in the general election. Even in here you see many Trump supporters saying things along the lines of “well, my second choice is Cruz,” or “I like Cruz but I’m voting for Trump because...” Out in the real world of the less-engaged voters, a switch to Cruz will be both an easy and a logical choice when the time comes.
So, if Trump loses on the first ballot the majority of Trump delegates are very likely to switch to Cruz because that’s the next logical choice of a Trump voter. That move will result in a candidate that the majority of GOP voters can support including, as I said, the vast majority of Trump voters.
Doing otherwise, and nominating Kasich, or someone else not even running, will alienate not only the Trump voters, but also most of the Cruz voters, because there simply isn’t a third choice that will satisfy both groups of voters. To do so will obviously be not only a suicidal move, but a fundamentally stupid move by the GOP. That isn’t going to happen no matter how stupid/suicidal Trump supporters think the GOP establishment is. Cruz will easily win if it goes to a second ballot, and given the way things have been going for Trump the past week or two, a second ballot is probable.