“I don’t think Trump will win NH.”
He may get the most votes, but anything less than a solid plurality (-10) is a big loss for him after his long-term lead.
Worst case for Trump if no loss - he wins a tight race with Rubio, and Cruz pulls a solid 3rd.
I predicted the top three would get about the same number of delegates in Iowa. At this point I think NH will do the same. And if Trump can not win convincingly in the North or Midwest he won’t do any better in the south. I think you are right about that. SC will be the decisive state I think.