Excellent ob by Tanknetter:
It’s hard to say whether Cruz can or will win New Hampshire. There’s just too much happening right now with data-driven turnout methods (see the “Moneyballed†thread) that aren’t really all that well understood by the public or political prognosticators.
I’ve been following this trend for years and posting regularly on it (see threads and articles on Catalist, Narwhal and Orca), and while I understand the fundamentals and implications, a lot of the deeper elements do seem like witchcraft. They also work, and work frightenly well.
The Cruz camp may just be trash talking here, but what they did in Iowa worked. If they adjust and apply a tailored version in New Hampshire there’s an excellent chance of an upset.
Did Mr. Trump's supply of Valium run out?