Oh, really? In 2012, in August (I took a hiatus from FR then and didn't come back until after the election), I had been doing a long, similar count and found that a majority of FReepers resented Romney so much that they were inclined to refuse to vote for him. I not only thought they were a minority on FR (until I did the count), even after I did the count, I assumed they were a minority among American conservatives in general, and that Romney would win.
But in fact, FR's majority apparently represented the national majority. Romney LOST because apparently, the balance of conservatives refused to vote against their own interests.
What I'm telling you and FReeper Trump-firsters is that if Trump gets the nom, you had better be prepared for Romney ReDux.
Admittedly, not a single vote has been cast yet, so this may all be moot...however, looking at polls/trends, commentary and extreme vitriol in the media, etc., Romney never had this kind of support in the general, let alone,the primaries. In fact, he struggled to get a majority of delegates right up to the convention. Remember the complaints of how Romney was “dying a death of a thousand cuts” and how the establishment said we needed to rally to support Romney in the primary so he wouldn’t be too bloodied before the general election?
This is entirely a different scenario. Trump, outside of Iowa, though latest polls show he may be leading there, too, is leading by more than 20 points in almost every state, and it is likely the real support is even higher. It is entirely possible, notwithstanding my initial sentence, that the primary race will be over in mid-March. It’s not just conservatives...Trump is showing way more crossover support from Dems, Indies and “moderate” R’s. He’s leading with Hispanics, he’s leading with evangelicals, he’s leading with blue collar voters...his favorability has improved greatly and now is seen as being able to beat Hillary or Bernie.
I believe one of the problems this cycle is not only the establishment and pundits, but conservatives as well, are looking at this election as any of the past elections. Same playbook...same tactics...same ol’, same ol’, which explains why they are incredulous with what is going on in this cycle.
The world and the country has changed dramatically over the past 8 years, and even the past four years. It’s a whole new paradigm as we’re seeing played out right now.