Ted Cruz Surging in Iowa, Viewed as Most Electable

Jews for Ted Cruz ^ | libertarian neocon

[libertarian neocon]

The latest Quinnipiac Iowa poll had great news for Ted Cruz on several fronts.

He is surging and now is just behind Donald Trump for the lead (technically a statistical tie):

There is good news and bad news in the fact that he has 42% of those who consider themselves Tea Party.  The good news is that the Tea Party vote is not as divided as it has been in previous cycles and that Cruz seems to be the consensus Tea Party pick (not a shock based on my Twitter feed).  The bad news is that with such a level of support, how much more juice can Ted Cruz get from Tea Partiers?  He is also winning among white evangelicals but he has more room to grow here, especially if he gets the Bob Vander Plaats endorsement.  Anyway, it is increasingly looking like Iowa is Ted Cruz's to lose at this point.

Another reason to be happy with this poll is that he is now being viewed as the most electable candidate:

This is very important because he has a clear lead among those that want someone who is the most conservative (or most shares their values) but has always lagged in the electable category.  It's also important that he wins among those who say the most important characteristic is that the candidate be honest and trustworthy.  Rubio is behind Trump in these voters!

On the policy front, as usual Trump is leading in the economic category but his lead isn't as high as before.  I think though that Cruz needs to continue to talk about economic issues to win more of these voters.  He is doing great with those who most care about terrorism but the ISIS hysteria will fade.

A good sign that this Cruz boom will be sustainable is that a little less than half of Cruz supporters have already made up their mind to vote for him.

 

Note that only 22% of Rubio support is actually firm.  I think a lot of people like Rubio because he is generally likeable, looks good on TV and talks well.  But not that many people outside of the Weekly Standard actually LOVE him. This could mean that as other establishment candidates, like Chris Christie, have little boomlets, his supporters might switch quickly. 

Also, Ted Cruz seems to be the least hated candidate out there with the fewest percentage of people saying they would never vote for him. That is pretty amazing as the conventional wisdom is that he is a divisive figure.  Cruz seems to have a high ceiling of support.

Going hand in hand with that is the fact that his favorables are pretty much as high as you can get them among Iowa voters, pretty much across the board (except for moderate/liberal voters):

And if there was any statistic to make you believe that Cruz will end up crushing Trump in Iowa, here it is:

 

The vast majority of respondents believe that Ted Cruz cares about their problems while only 58% of them think Trump does.  People tend to vote for people who care.  It's really reassuring to see Ted Cruz's numbers this high.  He used to have this used car salesman thing about him but he has been able to really humanize the way he talks so that people see that he really does care about them.

[Leaning Right]

Where is your neck of the woods.

I'm in a JFK Democrat rust-belt county. Folks here normally don't vote Republican in city or county elections. But when a Reagan comes along, things change.

If Trump is the GOP nominee, he will carry my county. The Dem's will win if it is anyone else.

[amihow]

Libertarian neocon posted an anto Trump pro Cruz article. Posters name says it all.

[SmokingJoe]

Quick question. Who gets bigger and more enthusiastic crowds, Sanders or Hilary Clinton?
Answer : Sanders by far.
Who is far ahead in the polls?
Hilary Clinton.
Case closed.

[SmokingJoe]

Why stop at the last two?
FACT: Most GOP nominees, including George W Bush did in fact win Iowa.

[FourPeas]

People like a winner

They do.

[sickoflibs]

Against Trumpster ??

Donald Trump Threatens to Run on a Third Party Ticket...Again (PJ Media ^ | 11-24-2015 | Michael van der Galien)

[erod]

[Pollster1]

Reagan could resonate with the average American, Joe Six-Pack. Cruz, as of now, cannot.

In the GOP debate, when Cruz compared the Hillary/Sanders debate to, "a debate between the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks," I assume many of his listeners didn't understand that it was a clever criticism or why. I like Cruz, and he's my first choice by a huge margin, but he needs to use more one-syllable words and remember his audience.

[Leaning Right]

I assume many of his listeners didn't understand that it was a clever criticism or why.

A most excellent point!!! Before I got smart and switched to a Chemistry major, I was briefly a Political Science major. So I fully understood, and appreciated, Cruz's Bolshevik/Menshevik comment.

But to the average voter, Cruz sounded like some sort of wonky goof. And that's not how you get votes.

[TangledUpInBlue]

Different times I’m afraid.......

[Pollster1]

I refuse to get directly involved in this election, or any election ever again, but I am confident that Cruz has advisers who pointed this out to him. I see steady improvement and a long-term plan behind his campaign, and I will continue praying for him.

[traderrob6]

Interesting

[traderrob6]

Hmmm, a year ago I was backing him totally. The only 2 Senators worth their salt are him and Mike Lee.

[Mr. K]

Look how well picking someone who was ‘electable’ worked last time!

I love Cruz, but Trump will bring more energy to this race than Cruz will.

Ideally we can have Trump/Cruz for 16 years worth.

Trump will also have huge coat tails, Cruz not so much

Last, HilLIARy would rather run against Cruz (50-50 chance) than Trump, who will win by 70/30.

[libertarian neocon]

” I’m in a JFK Democrat rust-belt county. Folks here normally don’t vote Republican in city or county elections. But when a Reagan comes along, things change.

If Trump is the GOP nominee, he will carry my county. The Dem’s will win if it is anyone else.”

I understand. Trump is strong with unions, I remember there was a story that the Teamsters might actually endorse him if he is the nominee. Im pretty sure Cruz is a strong Right to Work candidate so he probably wont win that endorsement. But i think making immigration into an economic arguement will help. Some good ole fashioned protectionism wouldnt hurt either.

[Leaning Right]

But I think making immigration into an economic arguement will help. Some good ole fashioned protectionism wouldnt hurt either.

When a Trump supporter is confronted with one of Trump's weaknesses, the most common reply is: Me no care. Me want wall.

Another FReeper posted this before me, and I think he meant it sarcastically. But I actually like it a lot, and I'm considering changing my tagline to it: Me no care. Me want wall.

[libertarian neocon]

” When a Trump supporter is confronted with one of Trump’s weaknesses, the most common reply is: Me no care. Me want wall.

Another FReeper posted this before me, and I think he meant it sarcastically. But I actually like it a lot, and I’m considering changing my tagline to it: Me no care. Me want wall.”

Kinda true. In the IA poll, of those that viewed Immigration as the most important issue, Trump had a whopping 55% of those. But the problem is that is only 10% of voters (though a very loud 10%)

[editor-surveyor]

.
Is it Ross Trump, or Donald Perot?
.

[ConservingFreedom]

“Ted Cruz Courts Liberty Movement in Iowa” - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/3245896/posts:

Cruz, whose Senate candidacy was endorsed by Ron Paul, has been working to make inroads with the largely-overlooked Liberty constituency in Iowa.

Last August, Cruz sat down with a handful of influential conservatarian activists in Ames to test the presidential waters. He fielded a wide variety of policy and strategy questions, but broke stride during a response on government spending to praise Paul and his followers, while taking a swipe at the suppression of Ron Paul delegates at the Republican National Convention in 2012. “Ron Paul is someone I admire and respect, I think he was a powerful voice for liberty - still is. And I think he energized an army of activists across this country,” said Cruz. “One of the stupidest things Republicans did in 2012, was try to kick the Ron Paul people in the teeth. It doesn’t make any sense if you want people to be energized and engaged, to go after them and treat them as the enemy.”

Cruz has also taken the time to campaign with liberty candidates in Iowa, and his Jobs, Growth, and Freedom Fund recently made a major contribution to conservatarian state PAC Liberty Iowa - tied, in fact, for the Fund’s largest contribution to any person or group nationwide. Cruz has also reached out to liberty leaders in the state to set up meetings later this month when he travels to Des Moines for the Iowa Freedom Summit.

[C. Edmund Wright]

I can see myself voting for Ted Cruz. That’s quite a change from around a year ago.

Welcome aboard! I've been supporting him since the '13 filibuster. Curious, why is this a change for you?