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Anyone in that position who had unlimited financial resources and who truly wanted to win the nomination would have already unleashed wall-to-wall ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, and would be assembling a massive ground-game in those states.

I am not a Trump supporter. I also dislike bad analysis.

Fact: People who build fortunes, including those who actively take big fortunes and build bigger fortunes over a long period of time don't throw money away.

Fact: Part of Trump's appeal is that voters have a perception that a large part of the problem is that elections are bought. The people who are contributing to candidates demand payback. If Trump goes Michael Huffington or Linda McMahon in the spending, he is more likely to get the same results.

Fact: The reason money is spent on advertising is to get the candidates' message out. The most important messages is to tell the candidate's story, so people know him and what his positions are, controlled on his terms. Secondarily, ads can be used to portray other candidates in a bad or at least lesser light. Mr. Trump has been presenting himself to the public in a variety of ways for the last 30 years. He can depict his opponents in a 180 character tweet or a two sentence sound bite more effectively than in a 30 second ad. News coverage also gets paid attention to more than paid advertising.

Fact: If Trump ran a content free "I'm great" without the fire and the Trumpian attacks and rhetoric, he might not have lost all of those endorsement contracts and product lines (Macy's , The Apprentice, etc.). He has now permanently lessened his ability to promote a great deal of those products. In other words, win or lose, this campaign has already cost him.

FACT: Trump has ignored EVERY rule already, because many of them don't apply to him. He doesn't have to go to the Panera in Des Moines because he sent a helicopter to the State Fair. While the folks in Waterloo may expect to have breakfast with Santorum and Huckabee, they know that Trump's time is more valuable and change their expectations to match. For the media, Trump's line about Megyn Kelly bleeding out of her wherever was NOT in the heat of the Candidates' Forum, but the next day. It didn't hurt him.

FACT: Trump has already ponied up the 40K for South Carolina. MUCH of his appeal is that he is pretty much locking out the consultancy class. He did have Roger Stone, who is a bad boy, but one with a résumé, and even he did not stay on (I'll leave the question open whether he was fired or quit). Trump prides himself on a tight time line. Walker's opening of offices and hiring 90 paid operatives did NOT serve him well. Why does Trump have to file long before the deadline? He has no donor base to satisfy. He can get as many names as he needs. The consultancy class HATES the fact that he is showing how they are not indispensable, at least not in their present form.

Based on the above, Trump is in it to win it. If he weren't, bad analysis like the writer's would tend to make him double down after all.