PS: See #37. Mr. Smith identified a possible flaw in their methodology. They only poll likely R voters who have actually voted in the past three cycles. This would cause them to miss new voters Trump and Carson are bringing in as well as missing any trends from independents who will vote in the R primary.
Your #40 is on the money! There are many more potential voters for the GOP candidates now than in 2008 and ‘12, when there was nothing but lame candidates.