Campaigns are just getting started. Right now the ground games and the money are more important than the polls that care about current name recognition. Trump the mouth will fizzle out election time and serious people will still be in the race. Walker. Cruz. Jeb (I'm not voting for him). Rand Paul. Maybe one or two others.
Trump has more money than anyone. Carly Fiorina is worth $500M, too. But that's not helping her get to relevance.
When do you think the first candidate who has announced with drop out? In 2011 we had candidates quitting in August! Pawlenty, who hired great advisors and was taking the race seriously realized that his poor finish in the Iowa straw poll was indicative of a general failure to catch fire, and quit on Aug 11.
I don't think any of them are going to quit until Iowa, and maybe not until after New Hampshire. And maybe not too many then as, for instance, Cruz finishing 4th in both he's still going to stay in for South Carolina. If Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida all have different winners and second place finishers you could have six or more candidates who continue on to Super Tuesday.
I think we could get to a brokered convention.
This years is really different, it's interesting and fun to watch.