Good point.
Cyprus was a trial run, in my opinion.
The haircut was 40%.
For over 6 years the banks have been paying very little interest, but lending it out at good returns. Should the European economy implode due to Greece, followed in short order by the collapse of Spain, Portugal and Italy, the fallout will cross the Atlantic in short order.
Then we ill find out that we were shareholders in our banks after all.
The IMF knows that the European banks are heavily invested in Greek Bonds. Those bonds go to zero, the balance sheets of these banks become a train wreck. Then the fun begins in earnest.
That would be true back in the summer 2011 crisis, but after that scary experience, all the European banks outside of Greece went out of their way to substantially bolster their liquid asset reserves just in case the Grexit situation happens. As such, Greece leaving the Eurozone will have essentially zero impact on the rest of Europe--even in Portugal, Italy and Spain.
For over 6 years the banks have been paying very little interest, but lending it out at good returns.
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EX ACT LEEEEE.