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To: poinq

“He did not answer the question, where should you put your money?”

Well then, that IS the $64,000 question (or however much money you have).

Fundamentally, it boils down to when the end will come and how it will come. The when could actually be a long time or short. The U.S. economy is powerful: we are a very rich nation, so we MIGHT be able to get by for years before we’ve printed our currency to death. Or there could be a Black Swan event and the whole thing could collapse overnight, depending upon how brittle our systems are.

As to the how, aside from the sudden collapse scenario, there are two slow scenarios: inflation and deflation, each of which would have it’s own counter-strategy.

Personally, I think deflation is less likely because it’s a simple matter for central banks to simply print lots of money quickly. Thus, if the stock market suddenly collapsed for example and trillions instantly went poof, the central banks just snap their collective fingers and conjure unlimited replacement trillions, though of course the folks that get those trillions are not necessarily the ones who lost the original trillions, especially the peasants who are on the losing end of the collapse.

Inflation on the other hand has no simple solution: you obviously can’t print your way out of it, though in fact that is exactly what central banks will attempt to do under orders of their government masters who will order this to happen in a vain attempt for these masters to stay in power for a few more years, months or weeks as the case may be.

Thus, absent a Black Swan event, I personally predict inflation will be our likely demise, though such an inflationary collapse could still be many years from now.

Well, then what to do if you believe inflation will be the end. If you’re old like me, you pretty much do nothing as most strategies are long term. If you’re young, then you might have options.

One is precious metals, but the pitfalls here are that the total worldwide quantities are very, very small and not worth very much in sum. In fact, the quantities are so small values are easily manipulated, and in fact ARE manipulated. So, again assuming there’s no sudden collapse scenario, I’m not too keen on precious metals.

Another strategy is to invest in paper “assets”, paper assets that are presumed to ratchet up with inflation, like say the stock markets. But these too are MASSIVELY manipulated and are subject to Black Swam collapse.

So that basically leaves buying and holding useful stuff, real things like real estate and farmland. People will always need to eat and they will always need somewhere to live. Additionally, good farmland and water rights are limited in quantity: they aren’t making any of either. Also, farmland is the ultimate source for most food.

Real estate is a little more dicey because they are in fact making more of it, and it requires maintenance, effort to rent, and is subject to market price fluctuations.

The next closet play to farmland is fertilizer, namely potash and phosphate mines. Naturally, these latter are pretty high-priced now because the smart people have already figured this out, but they probably are still valuable to own at almost any price.

Finally, oil and natural gas are definitely another great long term inflationary play. World infrastructure runs nearly exclusively on petroleum products, both as feedstocks and energy sources, especially farming and the nitrate-based portions of fertilizer. Petroleum and natural gas might even be the best long term inflationary play right now because their prices are so ridiculously depressed. Remember: buy low and sell high. And the only way to buy low is to have the guts to buy something no one else wants.


10 posted on 04/07/2015 10:50:18 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: catnipman

Coal rights should be a bargain right now.


17 posted on 04/08/2015 4:15:18 AM PDT by chopperman
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To: catnipman

Real estate about 1.5 to 2 hours drive away from big cities might be a good bet right now because self-driving cars are going to make it practical for middle class families to live that far away from their jobs. Many cities have huge Democrat retiree costs and will go bankrupt as big earners move away. A question is does it make sense right now to finance a real estate investment with a fixed rate loan, or stick to cash only buys?


27 posted on 04/08/2015 11:52:18 AM PDT by Reeses
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