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To: HomerBohn

The Russian economy is facing hard times but no one expects Russia to back down even if Putin is gone tomorrow.

Won’t happen.


2 posted on 12/16/2014 5:05:28 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

“The Russian economy is facing hard times but no one expects Russia to back down even if Putin is gone tomorrow.”

I agree 100 percent with that. That the Russian military is ready for a prolonged military adventure, or that nuclear war is something they’d countenance as an alternative to economic collapse, of that I’m less sure.

What may be more true is that Putin has hard intel that if they did issue a nuclear strike order, especially a limited nuclear strike order, Obola would back down and not counter it, conventionally, financially, or nuclear.

For example, if Russia nuked Riyad and allowed the Iranians to occupy Saudi Arabia, I don’t think we’d do anything. I’m not sure the Europeans would either.

What’s worse, I don’t think anybody is doing any scenario planning that would allow the National Command Authority or the EU’s NCA to quickly respond to something like that.

The news is saying that fracking is what’s causing the drop in oil. That is false - completely false, actually.

All fracking does is POTENTIALLY allow the US to move into the position of being a pure energy exporter. This would allow the US to POTENTIALLY become a market maker in energy.

The ONLY market maker in energy is Saudi Arabia. They have $800B in cash reserves. They make the market in oil - full stop. If they choose to continue to pump, the price will continue to fall.

KSA is doing this because of the political and military alliance that exists between Russia/Iran/Syria and potentially Turkey now. On the other side is KSA/Jordan/Egypt and Israel (if you can believe it).

War has formally begun between these alliances. The world has sanctioned Russia for the Ukraine and the KSA is artificially depressing the price of oil. Add to this the flight of capital from Russia and you have an honest to goodness political and military conflict. Israel destroyed a stockpile of brand new RUSSIAN missiles in Syria last week.

Nobody has declared war, but its on. The ONLY question now is figuring out at which point Russia decides it has no other option than ESCALATION against the KSA.

If the KSA stops pumping, Russia’s problems are solved. Russia CAN and WILL find buyers for its oil, as will Iran, if the KSA stops pumping.

I think the only question for Putin is whether you hop over Israel to come down from the north into the KSA to take their great spoil (cash, oil, access to shipping routes), or they decide they have to take out Israel first.

Israel is a one nuke country. They can nuke Tel Aviv and preserve Jerusalem (attacking Jerusalem would cause a holy civil war in Russia and their axis wouldn’t stand for it).

They won’t nuke Israel, because they don’t want a counterattack from one of Israel’s sea based nuclear deterrents.

The KSA? No worries there.

Putin has to be seriously considering bombing the KSA.

All he has to do is gain military control over it and then tell the world, “Look, do you want the oil or don’t you? We had a problem, we believed that even though the problem was economic, it was being inflicted on us, we perceived it as existential, and we solved it. We have no further military ambitions at this time, and we’ve got enough money to wait you out now. Are you buying?”

This is the only way you can explain the probing the Russians have done of late. If they have to go, what can they reasonably expect? Russian play chess. Obama plays Candy Crush.


40 posted on 12/16/2014 9:08:58 AM PST by RinaseaofDs
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