A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
Ping!
Ouch. So you are contagious before showing symptoms ? International air travel to infected countries has to stop.
See.... smart mutation. Not random at all.
The best hope lies in a new $489 million plan proposed by the World Health Organization, with the goal of stopping Ebola transmission within nine months. The ambitious plan would deploy hundreds of international experts and thousands of local medical staff. But first, Frieden stresses, the money has to be raised.
Meanwhile, the bad news is mounting. “The number of cases is spiraling upward,” he says. “There’s an urgent need to get patients into isolation and start to get better control of the disease.” But first, Frieden stresses, the money has to be raised.
“This is a threat not just to West Africa and to Africa, this is a threat to the world,” Frieden says, emphasizing the need to fund WHO’s effort. Every day the outbreak continues “increases the risk of spread to other countries.” But first, Frieden stresses, the money has to be raised.
West African health departments don’t have the staff, training or equipment to control this disease on their own, Frieden says. That means the international community must pick up the pace of its response to the crisis. But first, Frieden stresses, the money has to be raised.
“Literally every day that we don’t make more progress controlling the outbreak,” Frieden says, “is another day that the outbreak will not just continue — but grow much larger.” But first, Frieden stresses, the money has to be raised.
“Bringing to thirteen the number of people affected by the virus in the area Djera people in northern ECUADOR, where the epidemic was declared.”
This jumped out at me, but it seems that they must have used a “google translator” or something like it. I followed the link to a French language report. I don’t read French, but I imagine that the original news report is saying that the Djera live north of the equator.
Idiots........
Quarantining them is the ONLY answer. It must be stopped mechanically, so to speak.
Talk about burying the lede:
CDC Changes Criteria for Ebola Transmission; admits “being within 3 feet” or “in same room” can cause infection
THIS WEEK the CDC changed their information about how Ebola can spread; they now admit “being within 3 feet” of an infected person or “being in the same room” with an infected person can allow the virus to infect someone else! They also admit a person who is infected, but not yet showing symptoms, is contagious!
Notably, this appears right after a Nigerian student coming to the US claims the direct contrary, that nobody should be afraid of catching in from someone in their college class.
The statements about being within 3 feet or prolonged exposure being a risk factor refer to fomite and droplet transmission. Fomites are surfaces that are contaminated with infectious material, which is a danger to anyone who touches the surfaces. Droplets can travel a short distance before they fall to the ground, so someone near a patient can be exposed if the patient vomits, has diarrhea, or spurts blood. Many people confuse droplet and aerosol transmission, but they are NOT the same. Aerosols are generated from the upper respiratory tract; Ebola patients are not known to generate aerosols. Aerosols can travel several yards, putting people downwind at risk.
You will not get Ebola simply from being in the same room or an airplane with a symptomatic patient. You actually have to come in contact with a contaminated surface or droplet.
I am not certain about mutations rendering the tests ineffective. The recent Science paper indicated that the mutations are mostly conserved, meaning that genetic changes did not result in protein changes. So, a protein based assay will still work. Especially if the assay used is based on an antibody mixture (for instance, purified from serum of an infected animal or patient), in which case the likelihood of every single antibody in the mix losing its ability to detect viral proteins because they mutated is almost nil.
The genetic changes can make a PCR (genetic based) assay ineffective. But if the PCR assay is redundant (as it should be)—that is, it detects more than one part of the virus genome—then the more likely result is that a sample will have mixed positive and negative results. Other tests will be done to confirm the presence of Ebola.
In the case of Ebola, I believe that many patient samples are tested for other diseases common to the area, as well. Malaria and other hemorrhagic fevers are common in west Africa. A positive result for another disease decreases the likelihood that a case of Ebola is being missed. If the person tests negative for everything, then Ebola remains suspect.
It is not unusual for a virus to mutate during the course of an outbreak—in fact, it is normal and expected. Very often, virus isolated from a patient late in infection is different than that isolated early in infection.
Also, see post #18.
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...