NBC’s determination to replace Leno is one of the more mystifying decisions in recent network TV history. Leno has been a consistent #1 in the ratings since 1994, yet the network was determined to push him out the door in favor of someone who was young and would (presumably) deliver a younger demographic.
They gave the show to Conan because his ratings had improved (thanks largely to Leno’s lead-in), and his reps were threatening to O’Brien somewhere else. NBC panicked and the resulting debacle cost them at least $100 million, in terms of lost advertising revenue and the expensive buy-outs for Conan and his staff.
Five years later, they’re going to do it again. Jimmy Fallon is being touted as the new king of late night, someone who is a guaranteed success. But it’s also a fact that the audience at 12:30 is much different than it is at 11:30. Fallon has many of the same, snarky, irritating qualities that he shares with Conan. It may appeal to younger viewers after midnight, but it won’t play with slightly older viewers who tune in after the late news.
Fallon will bomb, just like Conan did. But this time, NBC won’t have a fall-back plan in Jay Leno. He will likely head to Fox, which can open up the checkbook and give him an earlier start than Fallon, Letterman or Kimmel, since Fox doesn’t program the 10 pm eastern, time slot.
What amazes me is the willingness of network execs to not only move the wrong guy into the host’s chair, but stick with someone who has been a miserable failure. Case-in-point: David Letterman. He makes even more than Leno, yet he’s been a distant #2 or #2 in the ratings since the mid-90s. Yet, CBS always proclaims how “happy” they are with Letterman.
If you’re a member of the media liberal elite, you can always get (or keep) a job. Letterman should have been dumped years ago, but he’ll occupy the 11:30 slot on CBS until he’s ready to retire. Ditto for Keith Olbermann, Anderson Cooper and a host of other failures. Apparently, ratings no longer matter at that level; it’s all about your “connections” and how much you’re loved by the fawning entertainment press.
I think your analysis is spot on. Did they re-animate Robert McNamara, JFK’s so called genius secretary of defense to pick Fallon? I only see negatives for Fallon, bottom line, he’s not funny. Jay Leno was a great stand up comedian and it shows.
great post