Yes it might start with a few Ruby Ridges and Wacos but Yamamoto’s famous words come to mind. “I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve.” They would do well to heed those words.
That's why they won't do Ruby Ridges or Wacos this time. Prominent gun rights advocates will suddenly be arrested on "child porn" charges - eliminating any chance of public support or sympathy. Gun-owning, rural, potential dissident types will simply disappear one day on the way to the mall - or die in mysterious one-car rollover accidents. Regular gun-owners who aren't especially political will be left alone for a time, while laws to disarm them are carefully buried inside Omnibus Porkulus Maximus 2013 bills disquised as critical civil rights legislation giving gays the right to marry kangaroos. When a jury summons type letter eventually arrives in the mailbox, "inviting" regular gun-owners to bring their firearms to the local police station in exchange for $1,000 health-care vouchers, there won't be a whole lot of opposition. The few renegades can be picked up later.