Seven states now with partial results in the spreadsheet I made based on this blog’s idea.
Shows Romney 29% chance of winning vs 71% for Obama.
Romney trailing early in FL and NC main reasons why.
Like you say, I think this is probably flawed, depending on where the early votes are coming from. Once a lot of states are beyond 50% of precincts in, this system probably starts approximating reality and becomes a lot more useful.
14 states now with partial results, 2 with 50% or more in.
Romney 32%, Obama 68% chance of winning.
Exit polling sounds bad for Romney too.
I’m not ready to call this, but it isn’t looking good.