[AZLiberty]

Intrade was accurate on the 2008 presidential election and the 2010 house elections. In the latter, Intrade predicted a Republican pickup of 60 vs the actual pickup of 62. This year it’s Obama all the way again.

But of course it’s hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic prediction. Intrade is only giving Obama a 65% probability, so there’s still a 35% probability that he’ll lose. Roughly speaking, the probability figure means that in 100 situations “just like” the current one, the candidate with the type of evidence associated with Obama will win. The true result for 2012 is either Obama or not Obama.

The Intrade probability for Obama will continue to migrate to either 1 or 0 as we get closer to the actual results being determined (whenever that is).

I’ve just been reading some of the comments on the Intrade Obama bet. “magic kingdom”, whoever he is, rocks. The inane opposing comments indicate that it’s knuckleheads supporting the Obama side of the bet.

[Utmost Certainty]

Ha, yeah. I’ve been tracking the comments too and liked some of what magic kingdom has been saying.

[Mike Darancette]

You have foreigners betting on US election results when their only source of information is the American press. How good would Americans do betting on European elections getting their information from Pravda?

[annajones]

2008 and 2010 — only two? I read that the University of Colorado electoral predictions are accurate since 1980 and they are leaning Romney.