This makes no sense. Even if he thinks he’s doomed, why would he pay off now instead of waiting a few days? Also, if he’s sure Obama will win, he could buy Obama contracts on Intrade and cover (or at least reduce) his losses on the current bets.
This is really nothing more than a large bet on Obama.
If Obama wins, Paddy is out nothing. If Romney wins, they lost their bet—but by announcing it in this fashion, they at least get some free publicity from the loss: “We’re a great bookie; we even pay off early!”
Moreover, if this publicity drives up the odds against Romney, they cover their bet by buying Romney for a reduced price.
It’s a gambler’s hustle, not a political prediction.