1) Over twenty Federal agencies are known to be buying quantities of ammunition which are orders of magnitude greater than anything in their history. In many cases, organizations which were not known to have armed forces have now been identified through these purchases.
The purchase contracts are a matter of public record in the Federal Register and the list of buyers has been published in many forums along with the known quantities.
2) The widely quoted estimate of 25,000 rounds per armed federale is obtained by dividing the total purchase quantities by the employee populations of the affected agencies. It is a very conservative underestimate. Less than 30% of any agency population has official weapons. Unarmed support staff comprise most of the ranks. Even in the FBI, ATF, and Secret Service, the shooters are an elite minority.
Range time is very expensive and training budgets are the first thing that gets cut as funds dry up. Others in this forum have mentioned the paltry supplies of ammunition that most armed agents are allocated for their annual qualifications.
Math is simple. Divide one number by another. When the result seems way too large, start asking why that is so.
3) I have spoken in person with my Congressman and been given bland reassurances that all is well, along with polite insistence on changing the subject. (He is very busy you know and has many more people waiting). That is certainly useful information in which to help reach an assessment. It does not, however, improve the conclusions that I reach.
Your mileage may vary of course. Perhaps your Congressman is paragon of virtue who would never mislead you and you can trust his every word. If he says “nothing to see here, just move along” then you are free to believe him.
BTW - did you have it documented? No, I did not supposed that you did. Congressman do not like to be recorded on potentially controversial subjects.
4)My sample size of contacts is certainly not ALL people in Government, and is subject to “confirmation bias” (after all I can only talk with people who are willing to talk with me.)
Even so, there are more than enough data points to disprove the thesis that Government is stockpiling ammunition for training needs. Whatever could they be doing then?
There are not enough data points to disprove the thesis that Government officials are planning to suppress civilian insurrections in the near future.
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If I saw more real training activities that would be using up the new inventory, I would be less extreme in my conclusions. Likewise, if I saw postponements and order cancellation by managers who say “Aww, we don't need this stuff after all”, I would be quite relaxed.
I don't see this things. Do you?
In fact a Texas Government official recently made an appalling public statement that his department was explicitly planning to suppressing insurrections after the next election.
There was the not so recent call from the Governor Beverly Perdue (D-NC) to cancel elections altogether, so that Congress could "solve the National Debt crisis" and "allow members of Congress to focus on the economy". [No, No, that was just a joke. She didn't really mean what she said in those prepared remarks did she? Besides that was so last year...]
When I see once cockroach, I generally conclude that there are about one hundred more that I do not see.
If you present yourself as sympathetic and like-minded, you too can get some astonishingly candid statements from your local officials about their need for security and control of certain population segments. Such items are "off-the-record" of course.
Some of the people I meet are very uneasy - and they are the ones supposedly in charge.
If I were in an official public-facing capacity, I too would be making soothing noises - and quiet plans for protection of my staff.
http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/large+government+ammo+purchase
Read the above carefully. Here's how I figure there is nothing to be alarmed about. ATK was awarded a contract by DHS for (up to a maximum) of 450M rounds of .40 caliber ammunition "over 5 years". That's roughly 90M rounds/yr. If your figure of 30% of DHS are "carrying", then 30% of 208,000 staff is 62,400 that are carrying. That means 1,442 rounds/yr per person, or about 120 rounds per month.
Is this excessive? How much ammo do staff carry on a day-to-day basis; how much is required for training programs; and how much is expended in ongoing skills practice sessions?
I don't know enough to say anything. But this quick "back of the envelope" scribbling suggests to me that it doesn't seem like anything to worry about (regarding DHS).