Posted on 07/13/2012 9:00:22 PM PDT by techno
The complete Virgil Goode rundown:
The ten most asked questions about Virgil Goode and why he matters:
1) Who is Virgil Goode?
He is a former GOP Congressman from Virginia who was defeated in the 2010 election. He is now the presidential nominee for the Constitution Party, a third party.
2) How long has the Constitution Party been around?
About 20 years.
3) I hear that Virgil Goode is NOT yet on the Virginia presidential ballot. Will he fail to get on the ballot.
To give you some perspective, in 2004 and 2008 the Constitution Party presidential nominee was on the Virginia presidential ballot. As Goode is a resident of Virginia and a former Congressman, do you really think he would not know the ins and outs of getting on the ballot, which requires him to get 10,000 signatures with at least 400 from each congressional district. As of June 6, 2012 via the Martinsville Bulletin, a local newspaper, Goode had already collected 4000 signatures. And the article concluded that the Constitution Party had as of that date already collected enough signatures to be on the ballot in 17 states.
4) Third party presidential candidates don't normally a cause a ripple through the process. What's different about Virgil Goode?
Let's put it this way, if the presidential election were decided by popular vote, Goode wouldn't matter. But presidential elections are decided in the electoral college.
5)What do you mean Techno?
There are certain states which are called battleground or swing states in which either the Democratic presidential nominee could win but by the same token the GOP presidential nominee could prevail as well. There are ten or so states in the 2012 electoral college which could be considered battleground states based on recent presidential elections and current polling. Virginia is one of those states. And it is not out of the ordinary for the winner of a battleground state to win by a margin of less than 2%.
6) So again why is Goode important to Romney's chances to become president?
Because Goode apparently is far more popular in Virginia than any other state. A Public Policy poll (PPP) in May found that Goode would garner 5% of the vote in Virginia in the presidential election against Obama and Romney. And now a couple of days ago, Goode increased his share of the vote to 9% with Obama collected 49% of the vote and Romney 35%. Without Goode in the mix it would be Obama 50% and Romney 42%. And for those not schooled in the electoral college, the winner of the popular vote in the presidential race in Virgina earns Virginia's 13 electoral votes in 2012. And that now appears to be Obama and not Romney.
7) Are you saying Techno that Goode is taking away way more voters away from Romney than he is Obama?
Exactly, that is what I am saying, But I am NOT the only one saying that. Local Virginia pundits are saying that as well. And PPP in its summary of the poll found that too. If you don't believe me, go over to the PPP web site and read it for yourself.
8)Techno, I'm lazy. I don't want to go over to PPP and read their s*it. Could you give me a brief synopsis?
Alright brother and sister. Under the Obama--Romney--Goode scenario in Virginia here is how the vote breaks down in four demographics: very conservative voters, somewhat conservative voters, Republicans and independents:
----------------------OBAMA--------ROMNEY-----GOODE
VERY CONSERVATIVE-------7-----------84----------7
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE---19----------55----------14
REPUBLICANS-------------9-----------78----------9
INDEPENDENTS------------45----------26----------17
It doesn't take a genius to figure out Goode hurts Romney way more than he hurts Obama.
9) But don't third party bids eventually fizzle out?
Yes, that is the rule of thumb nationally. But in Virginia Goode ahs gained 4% in support since May and he's not even on the Virginia ballot yet. Even if he drops back to his previous level of support of 5% that would still be enough to sink Romney's ship in Virginia in a close contest.
10) Techno, could you explain why Virginia is so important?
It comes down to the number of electoral votes (EV) in the electoral college. The general consensus among the folks who do it for a living is that President Obama currently sits at 247 EV when you include all the safe blue states and those states leaning to Obama (likely to win). If Obama wins VA, a battleground state, that takes him to 260 EV and therefore only needs 10 more EV to hit the 270 EV threshold to win re-election. And here are the four swing states which Obama must win these 10 votes again based on a consensus of experts: Iowa (6), NH(4), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9). Obama is currently enjoying a small margin in the polls in every state but Iowa and is running neck and neck with Romney there.
Of course the dynamic of the race could shift in the next three months or so but it appears Obama has the edge in winning Colorado and its 9 EV. If he did that he would reach 269 EV and would only need to win one of the remaining three states to get a second term.
As for Mitt Romney if he loses Virginia, assuming he wins the other huge 4 swing states of Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida and reaches 253 EV, Romney would be forced to win Colorado to have any chance of winning the presidency in the electoral college. The best he could hope for otherwise is a tie (269-269) in which case the contest goes to the House of Representatives.
One other element to consider: In 2008 President Obama won 1 EV in Nebraska who allots it EV by whoever wins the congressional district. Obama actually won this district (Omaha) by 9.77% which is a pretty hefty margin. If Obama could again win this district and on top of it win Virginia and Colorado that would take him to 270 EV on the button and Romney would be denied regardless of what he did in Iowa, NH and Nevada.
A final note: If Romney can win Virginia with Ohio, NC, Indiana and Florida he would then be at 266 EV. He would then not be forced to win Colorado but would only have to be victorious in Iowa to become the new president.
And that folks is why Team Obama has had many sleepless nights over the past 3 years. Virgil Goode is a godsend for Obama and his team.
Romney is another one of those GOP-losers!
The other 13 served only to make the GOP-e candidate ~ Romney ~ look good. Otherwise his 22% voting strength would have seemed remarkably anemic!
Next time we need to run 35 to 100 Conservatives ~ they should be able to suck up all the votes leaving the GOP-e crowd out of the running from the get-go!
The forces of evil have been shooting and killing for quite some time. The revolution has always been ‘on’.
So in other words no one would satisfy you. Got it.
Yep - I think "Ross Perot" when folks bring out this guy's name as the one they'll vote for in order to "stand by their principles". We have been infiltrated by morons who want to pull a Neville" and allow the current threat to flourish - the problem is there is no one left to pull our bacon out of the fire for such a historic "misjudgement".
Mr. RomneyCARE, partner of SOROS, and author of DEATHpanels,
is helping Obama.
techno, tell him to withdraw now.
He cannot win because America hates ObamaCARE/RomneyCARE.
He’s got my vote.
I don't think that's a problem for us ~ certainly wasn't for Romney and his associates.
I voted for Ron Paul but now is not The time to cry over spilt milk. Obama has to go.
There is a time and place for a temper tantrum , but now is not it. We have to get Ghettobama out of office and then fight mittens tooth and nail like we did W on amnesty meirs Dubai ports etc
Yes, I would support Joran vandersloot or Manson over Obama.
But not a conservative American who had not murdered?
Hmmmmm.
Team Romney gets weirder and weirder.
I would support anyone w a legit chance to oust Obama, including a murderer. Goode has zero chance of ousting Obama and is a gift from the heavens for a zero second term, as are the ABR wing of obamas electoral coalition.
Roomney isn’t lackluster. He’s a left wing elitist that opposes everything conservatives believe in.
No, non-looneytune logic. A vote for a candidate that will receive under 1% of the vote is a vote for a Communist.
By your logic, a vote for a leftist of either major party is two votes for a leftist.
Ping.
This news from Virginia is very positive for Virgil Goode. It will garner his some attention that is sorely needed, whether from friend or foe.
Hopefully, he can parlay it into more support in other states and a place in the debates.
After all, he is the only conservative in the racd.
/johnny
You go to the store and find another cereal, made by a company you’ve never heard of, that is similar to your old cereal.
Which would you place in your cart when you shop for the day?
I would unhesitatingly buy the one that suited my own preference, and those who like the changed cereal would buy that.In the marketplace I “vote” with my own money for the production of the things which suit me, and my “vote" is effective in giving the manufacturer credit for providing what I want, and keeping that company in business making that product. And the fact that other people support the manufacture of products I don’t want is largely irrelevant.
The difference in the two cases is that unless you succeed in seceding from the union, the country will have only one president, and you are lucky if your vote helps the least unacceptable candidate win. Democracy is utterly incapable of providing a principled way of selecting among more than two candidates. In any multiple candidate case in which only a plurality exists, the second or third place finisher might be more acceptable to all than the first place finisher is.
A vote is a blunt instrument, especially in comparison with a market.
I like Virgil Goode, I also like our own Tom Hoefling (Eternal Vigilance), it would be great to see BOTH of them get some time in a national forum, unfortunately our unelected and unaccountable media (combined with the institutional elites in both the ‘Rat and RINO parties), make that virtually impossible, to the greater loss of our Republic.
While EV seems like a nice guy, he has absolutely zero experience.
Goode is a many time congressman, he is known throughout Virginia after a senatorial race, and his positions are all conservative.
He is the only experienced conservative in the race. Expecting some freeper to get traction is a little pie-in-the-sky. Goode, on the other hand, is polling well in a swing state, and if he can parlay that into coverage, then there is an outside shot that he actually could get into the debates.
The more support he draws from Romney, the more he injures Romney’s chances, the more he forces conservatives to realize that united they have the numbers to win a plurality vote in a 3-way race if they unite behind a real conservative.
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