Let’s do the math.
Does anyone seriously believe that those who favor gay marriage weren’t already planning on pulling the lever for Obama?
Among the young, definitely the targeted audience of this announcement, I’m pretty sure the pivotal issue for then will be economic. I look for this particular cohort to (statistically, in comparison to 2008) stay home in 2012. And this announcement by Obama doesn’t change my prediction much at all.
Blacks and Hispanics are nearly monolithic in their opposition to gay marriage. A large number of Hispanic Catholics, who may have voted for Obama, will now be unwilling to ditch their religious beliefs and vote for this guy. I know, I was married to one.
Then there are evangelicals, devout Catholics in general, and the moderately religious, for whom Obama’s gay marriage flop may be a trigger to action, so there should be a loss of votes here too.
In sum, I see this announcement as detrimental to Obama’s reelection.
IMO the ‘targeted audience’ wasn’t the young, but MAJOR DONORS - Hollywood elite, progressives, gay activists and others - who had threatened not to write those big checks if he didn’t come out for gay marriage. Civil unions wasn’t enough for these folks. And if they can write checks upwards of $500K, well, what’s a lil change in position, especially with Malia and Sasha behind it??