Until it is confirmed that Mitt is his opponent, then those chances shoot up to 99%.
I think his odds of reelection are not good—even against Mittens. He got in because people were sick of Bush and Clinton—Now they are sick of Obama. Don’t believe the Media who all love and drool over him. This is how I sees it:
1. All Republicans will vote for Mittens—even if they hate him because they hate Obama worse.
2. All Democrats will Vote Obama because they got no choice and they fear and hate Republicans.
3. The people who will turn the election are the Independents who have grown tired of Obama and his squeaky little voice and lack of leadership.