We’re working hard in WI., stpio. Volunteers are streaming into our new campaign office to make phone calls..young, old, all ages.
Rick’s been here alot this week. He’ll be back for the whole weekend.
Romney isn’t here..is just doing robocalls, lying about Rick. I got ten yesterday. People are disgusted. Who would fall for that bullsh*t? :-) Mittens is outspending Rick by 55 to 1 here. Must be nice to try to buy an election.
Well I have looked at the WI simulation, and to be honest, I don’t see how Rick DOESN’T win WI. There seems to clearly be enough conservative voters to offset Milwaukee/Madison.
In 2008, McCain got 55%, Huckabee 35%. Romney was out by the time of the Primary, so it’s hard to tell if what would normally be Romney voters ended up voting for the Huckster as a protest to McCain.
Like IL/LA, Rick got close to 85-90% of the Huckabee vote. The problem in IL was that there just wasn’t enough of them in Southern IL. Rick’s been getting anywhere from 25-30% of the McCain vote, while Romney’s been getting over 50%, with Newt picking up about 10% of Huck and 10% of McCain. This has been pretty stable from state to state.
If Rick gets 90% of the Huckabee voters from 2008 and just 15% of the McCain vote, that will be him around 40 alone. The one unknown, is how many 08 Primary voters voted for Huckabee as a protest over McCain once Romney dropped out. It could be a significant number (10% or more), which if accurate may explain why Romney has a 7 point lead at the moment.
Bottom line: For Rick to win WI, he needs 90% of the Huckabee voters and at least 15% of the McCain voters. Romney is banking on getting 90% of the McCain voters and at least 10% of the Huckabee voters that only voted Huckabee last time as a protest to McCain. Newt gets the remants between those two categories.
If I had to guess right now, based on polling information and demographical data, I’d say it’s shaping up for the winner to get 44-45%, 2nd Place 39-40%, Newt/Paul 14-15%
Mountain Mary,
I am tired of the lies about Santorum, your news from Wisconsin is so good to hear.
Why is it we all sing “God bless American” and do not understand electing a non-Christian President severely limits
God’s blessings?